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What's the plan to win the Senate? - Matt Yglesias
https://www.slowboring.com/p/whats-the-plan-to-win-the-senateRepublicans have a very narrow majority in the House of Representatives, Donald Trump is unpopular, the president’s party typically faces backlash in the midterms, and Democrats now have the coalition that’s easier to mobilize in off-year elections. For all those reasons, I think Hakeem Jeffries is quite likely to be Speaker of the House in 2027, even without Democrats having done anything particularly brilliant to address the doubts the electorate expressed in 2024.
The Senate, though, is different.
I don’t want to say that Democrats have a zero percent chance of winning a Senate majority in 2026. But I do think that Democrats’ chance of winning a Senate majority in 2026 is nearly zero unless they do something dramatically different.
They need to win four seats to secure a majority, of which the most promising on paper is Maine, because Kamala Harris won Maine. But Susan Collins is incredibly hard to beat, and despite all of our supposedly large disagreements about electoral strategy, everybody knows that she’s incredibly hard to beat because everybody knows that a reputation for moderation is valuable in an election.
After that, Democrats’ best shot is North Carolina, a state Trump won three times in a row, but by relatively modest margins, and where the party is nearing their dream of recruiting former governor Roy Cooper. But it’s hard to win that North Carolina seat, even in a good national environment. More to the point, though, winning a hard race in North Carolina isn’t remotely enough. The next best shot after that is Ohio, a state that Trump won by 11 points in 2024.
The Senate, though, is different.
I don’t want to say that Democrats have a zero percent chance of winning a Senate majority in 2026. But I do think that Democrats’ chance of winning a Senate majority in 2026 is nearly zero unless they do something dramatically different.
They need to win four seats to secure a majority, of which the most promising on paper is Maine, because Kamala Harris won Maine. But Susan Collins is incredibly hard to beat, and despite all of our supposedly large disagreements about electoral strategy, everybody knows that she’s incredibly hard to beat because everybody knows that a reputation for moderation is valuable in an election.
After that, Democrats’ best shot is North Carolina, a state Trump won three times in a row, but by relatively modest margins, and where the party is nearing their dream of recruiting former governor Roy Cooper. But it’s hard to win that North Carolina seat, even in a good national environment. More to the point, though, winning a hard race in North Carolina isn’t remotely enough. The next best shot after that is Ohio, a state that Trump won by 11 points in 2024.