NY-GOV: Stefanik dominates Lawler and Blakeman in new poll (R)

[RandySF]

A new poll has Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik leading the field by 37 points in a GOP primary for governor and trailing Gov. Kathy Hochul by just six points in a general election. Though Stefanik has not announced a run for governor, the poll suggests that she – rather than Rep. Mike Lawler or Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman – could be Republicans’ best chance to reclaim the statehouse.

It’s still extremely early, but Stefanik’s performance in GrayHouse’s poll of 826 voters has her bullish on her chances in a primary. According to the poll, 44% of GOP primary voters favored her, compared to 7% who favored Lawler and 5% who favored Blakeman. Though she hasn’t given anything close to an announcement, it’s clear the possibility is on her mind.

“This independent poll shows what everyone knows; there is no question that the single most popular Republican in NY after President Trump is Elise Stefanik,” said Alex DeGrasse, an advisor to Stefanik. “If she decides to run, it’s lights out in the primary and very competitive in the general election, where she can certainly defeat Kathy Hochul.”

Hochul’s performance is in line with her usual approval numbers, as 61% of voters polled – including 34% of Democrats – said it’s "time for someone new."




https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/04/stefanik-dominates-lawler-and-blakeman-new-poll/404890/?oref=csny-category-lander-featured-river

[Self Esteem]

1. It feels like New York has shifted a lot to the right since 2020.

In 2022, Kathy Hochul won vs Lee Zelding, an insane Trumper, by "only" six points. That's the best a Republican has done there since Pataki won in 2002.

Letitia James won reelection more comfortably but it was a sharp decline from her win in 2018, where she won by nearly 30 points (she won reelection in 2022 by ten, which was the closest AG race there since Spitzer won by about one-point in 1998).

In the Senate, Schumer easily won reelection with 57% of the vote - but that was down from the 71% he received in 2016 and the fewest points he's won by since his initial win in 1998 over incumbent Al D'Amato.

In the House races, Democrats lost four seats in New York, which killed their hopes of keeping the House after the 2022 midterms. That was the most seats Democrats had lost in New York since 2010. Their 15 seats won in 2022 was also the fewest seats in decades.

In 2024, Democrats did pick up 4 seats overall - but Harris' win statewide was the closest a Democrat has had at the presidential level since Dukakis in 1988.

Kirsten Gillibrand won comfortably but again, like with Schumer in 2022, her percentage (59%) was the lowest of her career and the lowest of that seat since Hillary won 55% in 2000.

I don't think New York will go full-on Republican but it's clearly a state Republicans probably could win at the gubernatorial level, especially with how unpopular Hochul is there.