What If Trump's Iran Gamble Pays Off?

[justaprogressive]

Once again, Benjamin Netanyahu has manipulated a U.S. president into not just accepting his military decisions, but following his lead. When it came to Israel’s brutal annihilation of Gaza, Joe Biden went along passively. But Israeli attacks and assassinations in Iran produced in Trump nothing so much as envy. Trump signed on with relish. And just as Israel’s bombing of nuclear sites in Iran proved a distraction from Bibi’s political woes and raised his popularity, American military action might do the same for Trump.

It’s now clear that Trump and Netanyahu, despite deceptions signaling a U.S. preference for diplomacy, were in cahoots all along. The first deception was a planned negotiating session between the Iranians and Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff, scheduled for Sunday, June 15. The Iranians reasonably assumed that, with negotiations pending, no Israeli attack was imminent. Netanyahu then launched his attack early Friday.

The second deception was Trump’s announced two-week pause to see if diplomacy could work. This of course was cover for the “bunker buster” attacks that Trump had already set in motion. All we have is Trump’s word that this was successful, though the lack of radiation leakage could mean that Iran’s enriched uranium was moved prior to the attack.

Partly to reassure the isolationist wing of MAGA and partly to deceive the Iranians yet again, Trump is describing the weekend attacks as a one-off and inviting Iran to trust diplomacy yet again. They would be fools to do so, but what choice do they have?

One option for Iran is to attack U.S. military bases in the region. That would bring even more U.S. retribution, and it’s not clear how much capacity Iran has left.

https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2025-06-23-what-if-trumps-iran-gamble-pays-off/

[EYESORE 9001]

1. All Krasnov has done

is hasten the day when Iran builds the bomb. Russia, North Korea et al will ensure their success

[Silent Type]

2. Interesting that the writer ends with "[some semblance of success] could be the biggest risk of all."

"But those of us who abhor these attacks should also consider the possibility that they just might succeed. Surely Iran was not pursuing nuclear capacity mainly for civilian purposes; Iran was pursuing a nuclear deterrent. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded as much in its latest report of May 31. And while others in the administration have walked back Trump’s claim that the attacks wiped out Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity, they certainly set it back.

"Having stumbled from mishap to mishap in his domestic policies, Trump believes that he has achieved a triumph that has long eluded him. And Trump is never more dangerous than when he thinks he is prevailing.

"If Trump can restrain himself from more military adventures and genuinely treat the bombings as a one-off, and if Netanyahu can resist the temptation to further obliterate Iran—two very big ifs—it’s possible that the U.S., Israel, Iran, and Russia will settle into yet another phase of an armed truce. And both Netanyahu and Trump can claim vindication.

"That could be the biggest risk of all."

[Arazi]

3. This is so very premature

We won’t know if Iran’s nuclear sites were permanently or temporarily damaged for a long time. By every account they moved the important components necessary for nukes and could (will) reconstitute their program elsewhere, regardless of “regime change”.

North Korea, China and Russia now have powerful incentives to bolster Iran’s nuclear capability. While they aren’t going to come to Iran’s rescue with boots on the ground, they have every reason to support Iran having a nuke in the region. China especially needs Iran’s oil.

Nobody should be speculating on this “gamble paying off”. It feeds Traitor’s terrifying megalomaniac delusions and I firmly believe Dem messaging needs to be decisive about the strike’s illegality and the global instability he has created.

[ananda]

4. Thank you.

Of course the temporary payoffs are obvious...
such as distraction, huge profits for the MIC
and war profiteers, acting as if nobody can
contradict Trump on anything because he's
now the war president, and more I'm sure.

But the utter destruction of all of our social
safety nets, the food supply, and our ability
to deal with climate change will soon make
any idea of this gamble paying off totally
ridiculous.

[David__77]

5. This question is akin to asking if any of his other policies "pay off". Sounds like a way of saying "good job!"

[womanofthehills]

6. Republicans are hating Trump's war mongering

Meanwhile over on Twitter. MYG, Bannon ,Matt Gaetz, Tucker, Candice Owen,, Alex Jones, Massie, are all really pissed at Trump’s war mongering & bombing of Iran and Scott Ritter calls Trump a narcissist egomaniac.


. All feel they were lied too.

Here is an anti-Trump policy rant by Scott Ritter on Iran.

“Scott Ritter: Trump killed the damn Iranian negotiating team.

This man is a disgrace, a walking disgrace.

He doesn't deserve the respect of the American
people.

I'm somebody who said he's the commander in
chief, we have to support this guy.”

Link to tweet

?s=46&t=YZgyyp4w_z7vW3neKxa6cQ

What does this narcissist, this egomaniac do in
that?

Does he re-strike? 🔥

Scott Ritter: We have crossed the Rubicon. This is a very
dangerous path that we are, undertaking, and we don't have good leaders.

We don't have good leaders making sound decisions,
and the proof of that is the decision they made to support this act of insanity.

Link to tweet

?s=46&t=YZgyyp4w_z7vW3neKxa6cQ

[TheBlackAdder]

7. I'm sure Trump wants an attack to be on US soil so he can invoke martial law and lock more people up.

[Dan]

8. Aside from winning the Presidency, then could you share

What other success Trump has had?

Then, I might be able to see how this gamble might pay off.

[H2O Man]

9. Gross.

[Blue Full Moon]

10. He is going to use this to stay in power. Not going to work.