Other than the parliamentarian's decisions what's going on in the senate?

[spotthebird]

The parliamentarian has issued some decisions, most of them good as far as I can tell, but what else is happening? Mike Lee agreed to limit the federal land give away to those lands closest to populated areas, rather than include more remote federal lands that rich people wouldn't want. He made this "compromise" after the parliamentarian ruled that the federal land sale boondoggle can't be part of the budget, so it doesn't make any sense.

Is there a source that reports the predicted outcome? Other than Rand Paul, have any Republicans said they have a problem with the plan to bankrupt the nation? When do we think the vote will be?

Thank you

[msongs]

1. some democrats are writing sternly worded letters lol. does that count? nt

[spotthebird]

2. My question is whether Republicans are going to pass it as it is

[newdeal2]

3. All I see is posturing

I think Hawley has given in.

Regardless, I expect them to pass this clusterfuck.

[Wiz Imp]

4. I don't believe there has been any public debate on it yet

so it is hard to know exactly what it looks like. Here's some of the differences with the House bill:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67fd58c96da19e03e283d0a6/t/6859690c98bded3bb9f6502e/1750690061189/Key+differences+between+the+House+%26+Senate%E2%80%99s+Republican+megabill+%28June+23%2C+2025%29+%281%29.pdf

It's hard to tell where the individual Senators stand, but I think further changes are likely needed to get the 50 votes needed.

I'm pretty sure Rand Paul and Ron Johnson are definite no's . The bill as it currently stands includes draconian Medicaid cuts which will force hundreds of rural hospitals in red states to close. No way the bill passes without that being addressed. Hawley, Tillis, Collins, Murkowski and Moran all have objections to this.

Don't know what all the other objections are, but I know there are a number of other things one or more Senators strongly oppose. And the current Senate bill keeps the SALT deduction at $10,000 whereas the House version raised it to $40,000. There are a bunch of NY and CA reps who I'm pretty sure will not vote for the bill in the House if it comes back with the SALT deduction still at $10,000.

From my vantage point, it doesn't look real close to being able to pass at this point. Something will eventually pass and it will be terrible, but exactly how terrible and when it will pass remain a huge question mark.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

5. Overlapping problems create uncertainty over the future of the Republican megabill

Donald Trump has said the GOP is united behind the inaptly named One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The truth for Republicans isn't nearly that simple.

Overlapping problems create uncertainty over the future of the Republican megabill www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddo... via @msnbc

— Slapshot1955 (@slapshot19551.bsky.social) 2025-06-26T20:41:04.730Z

Link to tweet

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/overlapping-problems-create-uncertainty-future-republican-megabill-rcna214977

As things stand, Republicans are basically confronting five problems:

1. GOP numbers aren’t adding up: The Congressional Budget Office concluded last week that the House version of the package would add $3.4 trillion to the national debt, and this week, the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation found that proposed Senate changes would add an additional $400 billion to the price tag.

2. The Byrd bath: Because Republicans are relying on the budget reconciliation process, which prevents Democrats from derailing the bill with a filibuster, GOP lawmakers are having to subject the legislation to a complex process — which includes having the Senate parliamentarian remove provisions that run afoul of certain budgetary rules. This process is known as the “Byrd bath,” named after the late Democratic Sen. Bob Byrd of West Virginia.

In recent days, several key measures have already been stricken from the bill, including elements the party was counting on to help GOP numbers add up. This has caused a behind-the-scenes scramble that has not yet been resolved.

On Thursday, the developments for the party managed to get even worse. NBC News reported, "Republicans suffered a blow Thursday after the Senate referee ruled that a series of health care cuts and savings in their sweeping domestic policy bill are ineligible for the party-line path they're using to get around the chamber's 60-vote threshold."

The result leaves GOP leaders with limited choices: They can (a) look for other solutions; (b) try to tweak the legislation and ask the parliamentarian to take another look; or (c) vote to override the parliamentarian, which would be a radical and dramatic move that would risk altering how the institution functions going forward.

3. Far-right House Republicans think the Senate’s approach isn’t conservative enough: As The New York Times reported, “Some conservatives in the House only grudgingly voted for the legislation the first time, arguing that it did not go far enough in cutting spending, including on Medicaid. They agreed to support the package only after securing what they characterized as commitments from their Senate colleagues to enact deeper cuts and fix the measure. Now, those House Republicans regard the bill taking shape in the Senate, which party leaders hope to push through within days, as even worse.”

4. House Republicans from competitive districts think the Senate’s approach is too conservative: As NBC News reported, “On Tuesday, 16 House Republicans — almost all representing competitive districts — sent a letter rebelling against the Senate’s Medicaid cuts. They fretted that those policies would ‘place additional burdens on hospitals,’ among other things.”

5. The entire effort is unpopular. I mean, really unpopular. Republican officials have been working on this for roughly eight months, and talking up how great their plan is, but at least for now, the American mainstream isn't buying what the GOP is selling, which puts added pressure on members worried about their re-election prospects.

Given the scope of the intraparty disagreements, it’s not yet clear how, when or whether Republicans will work out their differences, and given the narrow margins in both chambers, the margin of error for party leaders is small. That said, if recent history is any guide, most, if not all, of the GOP members expressing skepticism about the legislation can be expected to cave after a couple of angry phone calls and tweets from the president.

We are headed to a debt ceiling issue soon which is why trump wants this bill done by July 4. I doubt that this will happen and we may see an emergency extension of the debt ceiling.