TN election poll shows close race between Aftyn Behn, Matt Van Epps

[EarlG]

Early voting for Tennessee’s 7th District special election ends Nov. 26. On Dec. 2, Tennesseans will vote to fill the seat vacated by retired U.S. Rep. Mark Green.

Green announced his resignation on June 9 and officially stepped down in July. Republican nominee Matt Van Epps and Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn will face off in the general election to fill the congressional seat.

Ahead of election day, a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey shows how Tennessean voters are leaning.

The poll found Van Epps with 48% support and Behn with 46%. Two percent back one of three third-party candidates, while 5% remain undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they lean, Van Epps’ support rises to 49% and Behn’s to 47%.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/11/26/tennessee-special-election-poll-aftyn-behn-matt-van-epps/87480273007/

For reference, last year the GOP candidate won this district by 22 points, 60%-38%.

[edhopper]

1. My fear is

the hurdle for turning these Red districts is just too high. Losing 51% to 49% is still a loss.
Does this district come up again next November?

[Just_Vote_Dem]

2. I hope this can reduce your fears a bit

If we can come close in a race that we previously lost by 20 points-can you imagine what we can do in races that we lost by 15 points or less? We are at the least competitive then, and could probably win some

[edhopper]

7. Yes

I didn't finish by saying, maybe by the midterms we can close the gap.

[2 Meow Momma]

3. Yes, it will come up again in 2026. nt

[edhopper]

8. Good

by then we will have a better chance.

[2 Meow Momma]

10. I agree. Either way it's a quick turnaround to more campaigning.

[Prairie Gates]

4. "Does this district come up again next November?"

Um, all House seats come up every two years, no exceptions.

[2 Meow Momma]

5. I've been holding Aftyn signs at the polls.

Last week and yesterday afternoon, I had probably 70% positive interactions. I was in a small city and the rural areas may be different. Info from my other sign-holding friends is that the mornings are MAGA time when the repubs actually confront sign holders. Just use your worst imagination. I had a few like that, too. I guess the Dems just show up a little later and I had a much more positive experience.

In a R+22 district the 2 point deficit is gratifying for the volunteers to be sure but we push on and hope for the win!

Oh, and Vance is coming today to Clarksville. Trump had a tele-town hall yesterday. It’s fun knowing that they are scrambling a bit to keep a R+22 seat.

We keep on keeping on!

[leftstreet]

6. LOL This is costing GOPers some $$

I don't think they expected this. Don't know if Behn can overcome the deep R+22 factor in the district, but watching GOPers empty their war chests, when they thought they had a lock, is always gratifying!

Thanks for the observations

[2 Meow Momma]

9. Yes, you're right. Bezos millions came in early. They may have seen

how dynamic a candidate she is and anticipated.

[Deminpenn]

11. Emerson's polls have been outliers

recently with a consistent R lean. The Hill is also more conservative than not. So I would take this poll as not at all bad news.

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. Isn't this a Trump +22 district?

Even if she loses by 2 points, Republicans will be shitting bricks for the next year until the midterms.

I might have to revise my unprofessional forecast from a 20-30 seat Dem pickup to 40-50 seats in the house, and 3-5 seats in the senate.

Think I’m crazy? Go look at Trump’s 2024 margins in IA, NC, OH, ME, and AK. Now subtract 20 points.

Still think I’m crazy?