We Need to Talk About Soft Secession

[Metaphorical]

From a recent article.

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Let’s look at the landscape we are operating from. The federal government isn’t functioning, and Republicans refuse to govern in good faith. They obstruct, defund, and dismantle. Social Security and Medicare are on the chopping block, and federal agents can now racially profile, assault and abduct, citizen or not. SCOTUS has given Republicans carte blanche to ignore any law or precedent. Meanwhile, blue states send billions more to Washington than they get back, essentially funding their own destruction.
our states have the constitutional authority to refuse authoritarianism and build functioning governments. Here’s how we can make them use that authority.

The solution doesn’t require leaving the union or violence. The anti-commandeering principle, upheld repeatedly by the Supreme Court in cases like Printz v. United States and Murphy v. NCAA, means states cannot be forced to enforce federal law. Red states have used this for years on guns and abortion, and now blue states need to deploy it for human rights, social safety nets, and stable functioning governance.

The model already works. When the federal government mandated REAL ID requirements in 2005, 25 states simply refused to implement them. The program stalled for nearly two decades because the federal government couldn’t enforce it without state cooperation. When the federal government classified cannabis as illegal, states legalized it anyway. Today 41 states have some form of legal cannabis despite federal prohibition. The federal government backed down because enforcement became impossible. Between 1780 and 1859, northern states passed personal liberty laws that made the Fugitive Slave Act virtually unenforceable, with only 330 slaves returned despite federal law. More recently, nearly half of U.S. counties have declared themselves Second Amendment sanctuaries, refusing to enforce federal gun regulations.https://cmarmitage.substack.com/p/we-need-to-talk-about-soft-secession

https://cmarmitage.substack.com/p/we-need-to-talk-about-soft-secession

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Note: I suspect that a soft secession is only a waypoint to a hard secession down the road. After 250 years, the Federal model is breaking apart at the seams (mostly regional) and we are facing the reality that in all too many cases, land DOES vote, at least along the tacit assumption that large landholders are typically the very wealthy.

[Initech]

1. That's exactly what Putin wants.

If the United States breaks up in any way, shape or form, Putin wins. We can't let that scumbag win. He needs to be dealt with the same way we treated Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden.

[FalloutShelter]

2. Absolutely.

Quiet quitting is NOT what this country needs.

[Initech]

3. Yup. We need to stand together against fascism.

Fuck Putin. Fuck Netanyahu. Fuck Mohammed bin Salam. Fuck Viktor Orban. Fuck Tayyip Erdogan. Fuck Javier Milei. Fuck all of these fascist clowns. They all need to be dragged out in handcuffs.

[FalloutShelter]

4. FTA...to infinity.

[markodochartaigh]

7. It is also what a lot of techbros and oiligarchs want.

Even if the break-up isn't complete, surely the techbros still want federal dollars, these fiefdoms would weaken state and federal control.

[Initech]

9. Yup they're terrorists too.

Only a much different kind of terrorist. Fuck Elon Musk, fuck Peter Thiel, fuck Larry Ellison, fuck 'em all.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. There will be no secession

That question was settled in 1865.

Secessionists never discuss or consider all the myriad complications that would arise from even an amicable dissolution of the union:

Social Security

Medicare

National Debt

Nuclear arsenal

Determination of citizenship in the new nations

Secession talk is just a parlor game for those unwilling or unable to do the complex problem solving and hard work required to take back and restore democracy, starting with, in 2029, expanding the court and killing the filibuster to do so.

That being said, I’m all for states asserting their authority and resisting this regime- let’s just not facilitate any mythology about creating a new all-blue utopian nation.

[Bread and Circuses]

6. We may need to take unprecedented action

True - I’ve had it with republican voters
True - This is a fascist regime and the constitution is being violated.

I like the idea of a soft cessation. Yet , I know that is not the solution. I think we face a multi-generational crisis to reclaim our vision for this country. I don’t believe we will be successful. Powerful and rich organizations want the US weakened and free speech destroyed.

I think we’ve broken through the ice . We may find a way to get rid of Trump , but there are 77
Million people who voted for this . The vile hate is entrenched.

[The Madcap]

8. I would rather see states combine.

Maybe in groups of five based on regions. More of a provincial system. It seems to me that would make the resulting combined states more flexible in terms of resources and more efficient at the state government level. It might also smooth out some of the craziness.

[Metaphorical]

11. I think that we need a stronger confederation, not separate countries

I see no way that a long term secession results in much good, but I also think that when you have one state (California) that is as big population wise or economy wise as most countries, the distortion that the current constitution has brought us to (where even in the House California is (very) under-represented while Wyoming and Montana are over-represented) brings distortions.

There are two distinct alternatives that we are facing. Trump completes the transition to a fascist dictatorship, in which case there won't be any meaningful elections, court systems, or even neutral military, or there is enough opposition that refuses to accept his legitimacy that we become a de facto multistate system. Trump has proven that he believes that he is above the law, and without opposition, there's really nothing to stop him from effectively declaring the constitution null and void. Even if he keels over at that point, a lot of the damage has already been done.

[BH liberal]

10. California, Hawaii and Washington state together...

have many military bases. Oregon got shortchanged. Alaska has quite a few, too. Weren't those states still free as "The Handmaid's Tale" opens?

[summer_in_TX]

12. Here are three pragmatic ways to go around the actions of the federal government on healthcare.

The Super Healthcare Compact: Three Ways Blue States Can Make Federal Sabotage Irrelevant

Christopher Armitage discusses ways blue states have experimented with ideas that can, and in some cases are, becoming the means to bypass the parts of the federal government that are no longer functioning as they ought to. One set of examples "requires no new infrastructure, no government employees, no capital investment. Just new rules about how private companies operate."

"The second approach requires all of those things.
Blue states willing to commit pool 10 to 20 billion dollars and create a fully state-owned nonprofit insurance company."

"The third approach abandons insurance entirely and just provides healthcare.
The states build hospitals. They hire doctors and nurses. They operate clinics. People pay income-based premiums for access to the system. Emergency care outside the network is covered because nobody should die from being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Routine care happens inside state-owned facilities with state-employed physicians.

California spends over 160 billion dollars annually on Medi-Cal. Redirect 10 percent of that toward capital investment and you fund 50 to 100 primary care clinics and 10 to 15 regional hospitals within five years. Partner with existing public systems in Los Angeles County, New York City, and Cook County rather than building parallel infrastructure. Expand what already works."

Some of the methods expand on principles red states have carved into court rulings. Others systematize experiments some individual states have done already.

[biocube]

13. The division in this country is an illusion

If there was a party that was economically progressive and socially center-right, they'd run politics for a generation. Referendums to raise the minimum wage and mandatory sick leave win in deep red states.

Now I'm not saying Democrats need to throw LGBTQ people under the bus, we just need to stop running as if the center is economically center-right and socially center left. The mainstream media and too often the political consultants think it is, but it's the opposite of that.

I live in a red area and have friends that voted for Trump. It's a myth that they are okay if they suffer as long as *those* people suffer more. They don't vote Democrat because Dems don't agressively market themselves as the party of the working class.

[LearnedHand]

14. I've been reading Armitage's soft secession theories for a while

They seem to make a lot of sense, but the execution could be very fragile, I think. If you think about the state governments, made up oftentimes of folks who have other full-time jobs, it wouldn’t take a lot of federal or corporate blowback to make them cave. I get where he’s going though. The state governments are all we have left when every other federal institution has fallen.