CIA analysis concludes Iran in a strong position

[SamuelTheThird]

A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.

The analysis by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s public statements, also found that Tehran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment, three of the people familiar with it said.

Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/07/cia-intelligence-iran-trump-blockade-missiles/

[Doodley]

1. So Trump's lies about the total destruction of Iran's weapons have been exposed.

[WSHazel]

2. That is not the only analysis to do

I don't have WaPo, but I have read other discussions of the same issue. Iran shares borders with 7 countries, so there are other ways to get goods in and out of the country. Oil is valuable right now, and many countries in Asia would be willing to pay the shipping costs to get it overland. It is not ideal for Iran, but not out of the question. There are also more countries willing to break sanctions than there were three months ago.

The real question is how long can the Gulf States survive the blockade? How long can Europe and China before they have enough and get directly involved?

[LetMyPeopleVote]

3. MaddowBlog-As evidence contradicts the White House's line on Iran, Trump targets free press

The president seems less upset about the developments in Iran than he does about Americans knowing about the developments in Iran.

As evidence contradicts the White House’s line on Iran, Trump targets free press www.ms.now/rachel-maddo...

— Philly Joe (@joehick58.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T19:49:26.039Z

https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/as-evidence-contradicts-the-white-houses-line-on-iran-trump-targets-free-press

There is reason to believe the president and his team have not just mismanaged an unnecessary war, they have also taken deliberate steps to deceive the public about its progress. MS NOW reported:

Classified U.S. intelligence assessments of Iran’s military capacity revealed a reality at odds with the Trump administration’s public claims that Iran’s missile stockpile has been decimated, showing the regime has regained access to key missile sites and launchers after more than two months of war.

The recent intelligence reports found Iran has restored access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it controls along the Strait of Hormuz, which could be used to target American warships and oil tankers transiting the strategic waterway, a U.S. official with knowledge of the intelligence assessments told MS NOW.

This dovetailed with a related New York Times report that said Iran “still fields about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile.”....

Two weeks ago, for example, Trump said the Times’ coverage of Iran was “actually seditious, in my opinion.” This week, he kept going, saying via his social media platform that news organizations have committed “virtual TREASON,” adding, “They are aiding and abetting the enemy!”

The argument is tough to follow — the Iranian government is aware of its own military capabilities, whether American news organizations report on its resources or not, so it’s far from clear how Iranian officials are “aided” by the disclosures — though it’s important to emphasize that this is not just an instance of Trump railing against the nation’s free press for the umpteenth time.

On the contrary, the administration is also following through on the rhetoric with meaningful action. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Trump “privately complained to acting Attorney General Todd Blanche about media leaks in the wake of the Iran war last month, according to administration officials familiar with the matter, prompting an aggressive push at the Justice Department to pursue those investigations.”

trump did not destroy Iran's military and is trying to lie. In addition, it is clear that Iran inflicted significant damage on US bases in the region.

[dalton99a]

4. +1