Iran Doesn't Have To Win. It Just Has To Outlast America.

[SamuelAdams]

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Iran Doesn’t Have to Win. It Just Has to Outlast America.

Momocracy

Everyone is asking who is winning.

I think we’re asking the wrong question.

Iran doesn’t have to defeat the United States militarily. It only has to make the conflict expensive enough, politically difficult enough, and long enough that ending it becomes harder than continuing it.

In this video, I break down:
• Why this conflict could become a forever war.
• The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Why military superiority doesn’t always produce political victory.
• The psychology of escalation, sunk costs, and why governments struggle to end wars.
• What history from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan can teach us about where this conflict could be headed.

This isn’t about rooting for either side. It’s about understanding how wars evolve—and why some of the most dangerous ones become normalized before people realize what’s happening.

If you enjoy psychology, geopolitics, and deep analysis of current events, subscribe for more.

[Bayard]

1. Its not going to end,

Until Dems are back in power, and actually know how to sensibly negotiate. Of course, at this point, trump may have screwed that up forever. I don't suppose we could pull John Kerry out of retirement.

[SamuelTheThird]

3. Really, what can Dems do?

The 'negotiation' would be Iran maintaining control of the Strait and the consequences that flow from that.

Once the trigger was pulled, no solution was ever going to be forthcoming. This can not be solved at this point.

[Bayard]

5. I disagree

Its certainly not going to be solved by any chest thumping morons, who just keep saying--Bombs Away! Level headed diplomats will have to go in and say--Look, we agree the last guy was a stupid selfish child playing war games. Let us now talk as adults with common sense and similar goals of peace.

[SamuelTheThird]

6. That's vague though

Iran wants control of the Strait. What do you do about that? Invasion is out of the question.

There's no solution, and that's going to be obvious going forward, if it isnt already

[Bayard]

8. They didn't control it previously

Ships may have to pay a toll to resolve this conflict. trump stirred up a hornet's nest, and unfortunately, everybody else pays for his idiocy.

[Johonny]

2. Iran has a strategy and a goal

Trump has no strategy and no goals...

[Boo1]

4. I said this on the day of the first strikes

Iran can't go toe to toe with the US in a full out war. But they don't have to. Trump doesn't have the stomach for a real war and thinks he can just bomb his way to victory. All Iran had to do was apply economic pressure in an election year, and they had an easy mechanism to do it with the strait.

[Wounded Bear]

7. True of all assymetric warfare...

One side only has to survive, and it's not the side with all the fancy toys.

Iran controlling the Strait is now a permanent feature of trump's war. Our only real exit strategy is to decouple the US economy from the oil industry as much as possible. The government does not keep oil prices low to stabilize the economy, they keep them low to ensue the survival of the oil oligarchs.

Every time shit like this happens, oil and gas prices go up and there is a surge in EVs and alternative energy. Usually, what happens is things get somewhat settled, prices drop again, and things go back to "normal." Each time, we get a little bit closer to getting off the oil standard. Is this the last time? Doubtful, but one can hope.