Global Trade Is Leaving the US Behind

[lostincalifornia]

Perhaps the most surprising trade policy development of 2025 wasn’t President Donald Trump’s tariffs but rather foreign governments’ refusal to respond in-kind. Although such abstinence is economically optimal, politicians typically embrace tit-for-tat retaliation for political and strategic reasons. So, when only China and Canada followed Trump’s protectionist lead, the relative quiet was an unusual, albeit welcome, result.

It didn’t mean, however, that governments, companies, and even many individuals were standing still. Instead, they “retaliated” in a smarter way: reducing their future reliance on a US that has increasingly embraced protectionism since at least 2016 – protectionism that, ironically, might be helping the very country tariffs were supposed to contain.

America’s departure from the epicenter of global trade began years ago and has accelerated in recent months. According to the World Trade Organization, the US share of global merchandise trade (imports plus exports) in the third quarter1 was the lowest for that period of the year since 2014, and the drop from 2024 was larger than the cumulative loss between 2015 and 2024. Bloomberg News adds that inbound container volumes through North America — some 80% of which is the US — went “from a world leader to a laggard” last year. Boston Consulting Group projects the trend will continue in the years ahead, with the US’s share of world trade falling from 12% in 2024 to 9% by 2034 because of “policies pursued by the Trump administration.”

Even bigger moves are happening beneath the surface, especially regarding China. When Trump fired his opening tariff salvo in 2018, the US absorbed roughly 19% of Chinese exports, but the share tumbled to 11% by the end of last year. China’s total exports and trade surplus have nevertheless continued to grow because exporters there targeted other markets, notably in Southeast Asia (Asean) but also in Africa, Europe and Latin America – a move trade economists have dubbed “the great reallocation.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-12/on-trade-and-tariffs-the-world-is-moving-on-from-the-us?srnd=homepage-americas

[Submariner]

1. I'd like to see Canada deliver a tanker of oil

as a humanitarian gesture towards Cuba, to prevent unnecessary consequences for the hospitalized bed ridden or at risk when the lights go out, and watch what Cankles does to engineer an embarrassing standoff.

[dalton99a]

2. Kick