Here's my admittedly imperfect analysis of where the market stands, and a question.

[BWdem4life]

From mid-2011 to early-2020 inflation was pretty much under control, generally under 3% annually. Covid hit, the market crashed, but within 5-6 months it had regained most of it back. Then inflation became a problem in 2021-2022. By March or April 2021 at the latest it was clear to most that things were spiraling.

Still, the market continued to climb, seemingly unaffected, until late December 2021.

For whatever reason, investors had seen enough at that point (the year ended with inflation at 7% over the previous year). The market went into a steep 10-month slide, after which it did not return to its former height until two full years after the slide had begun. (The turnaround began around mid-October of 2022, after two consecutive negative inflation reports for July and August.)

So. This being the case, I suppose I should not be particularly surprised that investors aren't pulling out just yet (although I, a novice, dumped all mine the day after tRump hit Iran.) They seem to care only about inflation, for the most part, but seem to have a high tolerance for it in the short term.

This being the case, now that I'm no longer working full-time preparing taxes and can take the time to watch things daily, I'm considering dipping a toe back in despite the recent inflation - but remaining prepared to pull back again if it doesn't start showing signs of real improvement by, say, November.

Does this seem at all like a reasonable analysis? I mean, for those who like to try and time things a bit, not for the more risk-averse ppl who just buy and hold.

[Metaphorical]

1. A few notes

Last edited Tue Apr 28, 2026, 12:02 PM - Edit history (1)

And I will state up front I am neither a financial advisor or an accountant, just someone who watches future trends:

* I'd recommend diversifying into foreign investments at this point; my sense at this point is that the tech sector right now is circling the drain, and it is quite literally about the only thing keeping the major indices afloat. OpenAI and Anthropic are both being forced to reprice their token usage costs as external expenses rise even as additional investment seems to be waning - mostly trading in kind for in-kind, not cash infusions. I'm not necessarily seeing a sudden sell-off, but I do think there's going to be an attempt at a steady deflation of the buble as burned investors try to get out of the market (especially those outside of the US).
* Inflation is now hitting consumer prices, and this is going to continue to climb. It takes a while for inflation shocks to really make their way into prices, but gas is now up about 12-15% in general.
* If you listen to the US MSM, we're winning the war, but what's emerging from more unbiased coverage is that the US is losing leverage daily, and the US military took a much bigger hit than the media is letting on. The effects of that are going to be making their way into the supply chain by summer.
* It's going to be hard at this point for the federal reserve to reduce interest rates in that kind of economy (indeed, more economists are now pricing in interest rate hikes), and that's becoming a big drag in terms of both market speculation and economic activity. I think that will negatively affect the tech sector as well.
* I'd invest in the market with discretionary funds that you're willing to lose, but I think that at this point I see the market largely drifting until after the election.

[BWdem4life]

2. Well, I guess that's all I would have anyway

- discretionary funds - because I just put the vast majority of my investing funds into a 6-month cd. Maybe I’ll play around with a small amount this summer though… we’ll see what November brings.

[3Hotdogs]

3. It's the "in-kind deals that are worrying some market watchers. The A.I. stocks are the ones that are leading the upward

Last edited Tue Apr 28, 2026, 06:49 PM - Edit history (1)

market trends and many of the funds are heavily invested in those stocks.

[BWdem4life]

4. Follow up then

I have a list of 50 stocks that I follow. I chose them partially for their longevity but also for their volatility… among other factors including personal disfavor for certain types of companies, etc. Higher potential for both gain and loss, but I buy them far below the median price adjusted for inflation. 15 of those 50 have taken off (without me being invested in them, unfortunately) and it’s my assumption it’s AI related. My cynical nature assumes it’s gonna be like the dot-com crash for them pretty soon.

So the question is, when/if the bubble bursts, is it likely to take the rest down with it or am I relatively safe (so to speak) since I only invest in stocks that are maybe 1/4-1/3 above their lowest historical inflation-adjusted price?

[3Hotdogs]

5. Based on past "crashes," most will go down. Some will suffer steep decline.

For fun, Read "Wall Street Money Machine" by Wade Cook. Since you like volatility, look at the premium you get for selling calls at close to the market.

Paper trade two or three of those for a couple of months. Then at the beginning, look at the cost of a 3 month put, out of the money. The put, in this scenario, is an insurance policy for the market collapse if it happens. It will probably expire worthless. So does your car insurance but that is the purpose.

The point is, the 4 you set for selling the calls should pay for the puts AND turn an additional profit.

Doing this with the Fortune 500 or Dow, you would have made money every time Orange Anus opened his mouth.

[BWdem4life]

6. Wade Cook, no thanks I don't want my life to be THAT volatile

Thanks for the other advice though.

[3Hotdogs]

7. The guy didn't follow his own advice - got greedy and went bankrupt.

The basic strategy is sound.

[BWdem4life]

8. Well it is essentially why I go after them

If (big if) you can do a decent job getting your timing right, you can easily make 8% in a month (or 5% in 2 weeks), then sell and repeat with a different stock.

Of course you'll often get it wrong too, so knowing when to cut your losses (as well as realize your gains) is also key.

In general, if you figure the S&P 500 is essentially slightly less than 1% profit compounded monthly, if you can do double that (seems like it shouldn't be hard to do if you are disciplined about it) within 8 years you're 225% higher than buying and holding. Another 8 years and now thanks to the compounding you're 930% higher. $1,000 start in January 2010 becomes $35,000 in January 2026, as opposed to $6,000 in an S&P 500 index fund you never touched. Even accounting for higher taxes you're way better off. Besides I'll be 74 in another 16 years, so the time to buy and hold has passed me by.

Now if I can manage 3% per month, heh... be talkin real money then, which I'll probably be needing.

I've been working on my system for just about exactly 3 years now, using real money. The first half year I lost $250, the next year I lost $350, then in 2025 I made some changes (and many poor decisions as well) which led to me losing over $7,600 more. By that point I was pretty demoralized as it was nearly half my total investment of $17,000 (made incrementally over that time period). To put that into perspective, $17K is more than half my yearly income (though granted my living expenses are much lower than average, or I never could have put together that much of an investment in the first place.)

However. I switched the system around once more in December, and combined with some good luck (for once!) I made up $3,300 of it by February 28.

Then I reacted too slowly to the news tRump was attacking Iran (despite a nagging voice in my head, I did not sell off the following Monday - then began to in days after, finally dumping the last on March 9 after having lost half the $3,300 I had gained.

At that point I was too busy with tax prep work to notice the market rebounding a month later so I missed that opportunity. Still, for the first time I've seen some signs of a working system finally if I just stop ignoring my own common sense.

I just put $4,000 back in, the other $11K that remains of my original $17K is currently in a 6-month CD since I haven't learned of any better ways to safely earn yet.

The adventure continues....

[3Hotdogs]

9. Luckily, I have S.S. and a defined benefit state pension. House is paid off and so forth.

Like everyone, I would like more money but I don't NEED 0more money. I made over 200k in 2002 -2005 with stocks and options and placed it in in Fidelity 500.

I stopped the trading as it became stressful, being in addition to a regular teaching job. I may now go back to it on a more limited basis, using longer timed options.

Good luck on your strategy.