Gap Patterns in Focus: What GOOGL, AAPL, and the S&P 500 Are Telling Us
https://articles.stockcharts.com/article/gap-patterns-in-focus-what-googl-aapl-sp500-are-telling-us/"The S&P 500 ($SPX) index gapped higher to finish the week at yet another new all-time high. This latest gap, while bullish on the surface, would need to be validated by some sort of follow-through next week. Otherwise, we could be faced with the dreaded gap and fail or jump and dump pattern.
Today, I'm going to break down how price gaps can be valuable for gauging investor sentiment, particularly the action in the days immediately following the price gap. Ill share examples of bullish and bearish gap behavior, and then outline three charts with recent gaps that need to be validated next week...
... Will the S&P 500 Confirm a Gap and Fail Pattern?
We can also observe a clear shooting star candle pattern on the chart of the S&P 500, with the open and close near the low of Fridays trading session. The gap on the S&P 500 is not a significant gap, such as the ones we described on the chart of ORCL, but the price action after this small gap could end up serving as an important piece of evidence going into the first full trading week of May..."
bucolic_frolic
(55,660 posts)I always read all gaps are (eventually) filled. Also that when filled they indicate support/resistance and immediately tend to reverse the gap fill direction. So there you have it, all scenarios possible - up, down, or reverse on fill.
I'd say the market is vulnerable at this point, but with everyone expecting some sort of plunge, it's unlikely to happen. Also that AI is a remarkable trend with massive capital behind it. Eventually all will go broke, just like 2001, but this capital infusion is bigger by several degrees. Nonetheless, I'm headed to the sidelines.
cliffside
(1,769 posts)some are more likely to get filled, others not as much. I've looked more at gaps as support vs resistance as I do not short and do not trade on a short term basis. I'm not good at fundamental analysis, looking at balance sheets etc, plus numbers on statements can be tilted a bit. Just my opinion the numbers on charts matter more. The shooting star on the SPX is a cautionary tale for those looking to increase their exposure to equities at a certain age
Those of a younger age, look away and keep on investing in your early years. The April monthly candle and three white weekly soldiers should not be ignored, I'm more into preservation mode at this point in my life.
In early April there were signs of IHS patterns that have played out, mentioned those in this post.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221141158#post21
When I first started looking at charts in late 1999, and through the subsequent bear market, I do remember watching a gap get filled from 1992, almost to the penny. Also watching an IHS pattern back in 10/2002, somethings never change. Accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown ... rinse and repeat. Now there are degrees of these patterns, I'll leave that up to those who are proficient in Elliott Wave and harmonic patterns etc.
I'm thinking the next high will correct from the 2009 low, could be wrong, for now, how high will we go and how low might we go? More for those close to retirement or in retirement. My kids, just keep on putting money in the market, it all depends on your stage in life ... one size does not fit all.
Horizontal grey lines are old gaps not filled, fib retracements are illustrative of where buyers come in, thinking mostly of algorithmic trading and then some retail investors follow. Chart looks a bit chaotic on a monthly view, sorry, happy to zoom in if anyone is interested.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/alKoPwsw/
Hoping to spark some interest in technical analysis in this forum and share when I can.
bucolic_frolic
(55,660 posts)Mutual funds have been fluctuating for more than 6 months. I exited a few last week.
So appreciate the longer term TA perspective, it's hard to find.
In your Trading View chart, the bottoming tail around 4818, and the Fib at 3500 are worth watching. I'm thinking though that the S&P and NDQ may diverge, they are like 2 different economies at this point.
cliffside
(1,769 posts)that I joined in late 1999, just in time for the end of the tech bubble. Someone there posts EW charts and has been pretty accurate. The only fund I own at the moment is a short term income fund that mainly holds corporate bonds.
Thanks for looking at the chart, it is my pleasure, the fibs are helpful. I did not see this until after the low, it uses the 2023 low ... someone is looking at fibs.
ES futures
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MKXPyNUf/
Agree there are currently two different economies, although some say the market will broaden, we'll see. I'm going to post a longer term Nasdaq Comp chart in this thread, my data goes back a bit further.
Good luck and thanks for your response.