Under Current Trends, 70% Of Amazon Basin Rainforest Will Shift To Savannah When We Destroy 20-25% Of Its Historic Area
Last edited Mon Jun 30, 2025, 10:17 AM - Edit history (1)
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At what level will the Amazon hit a tipping point?
We estimate that a tipping point could be reached if deforestation reaches 20-25% or global heating rises to 2.0-2.5C [above preindustrial levels].
What is the situation today?
It is very, very serious. Today, 18% of the Amazon has been cleared and the world has warmed by 1.5C and is on course to reach 2.0-2.5C by 2050.
How is this being felt now?
The rainforest suffered record droughts in 2023 and 2024, when many of the world’s biggest rivers were below the lowest point on record. That was the fourth severe drought in two decades, four times more than would have been expected in an undisrupted climate. Every year, the dry season is becoming longer and more arid. Forty-five years ago, the annual dry season in the southern Amazon used to last three to four months and even then there would be some rain. But today, it is four to five weeks longer and there is 20% less rain. If this trend continues, we will reach a point of no return in two or three decades. Once the dry season extends to six months, there is no way to avoid self-degradation. We are perilously close to a point of no return. In some areas, it may have already been passed. In southern Pará and northern Mato Grosso, the minimum rainfall is already less than 40mm per month during the dry season.
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How have your feelings about this problem changed?
I am worried that we are not acting with sufficient urgency. Thirty-five years ago, I thought we had plenty of time to get to zero deforestation and to combat the climate problem. Back then, deforestation was 7% and global warming was a little bit above 0.5C. I was not pessimistic because I felt we could find solutions. At the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, many people were saying that the world should aim for zero emissions by the year 2000. Unfortunately, nobody moved. Emissions continued to rise and they hit another record high last year. We now face a climate emergency. I am very, very concerned.
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2025/jun/26/tippping-points-amazon-rainforest-climate-scientist-carlos-nobre