Let's talk about "what about the Dow?" - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about what about the Dow. Let me just start by saying if you normally skip over the economic videos, watch this one.

In one of the most bizarre exchanges I've ever seen on Capitol Hill, a Trump administration official began touting the stock market's success. She pointed out that the Dow had crossed 50,000, which is a psychological barrier number, meaning it's hard to get over. But hey, why shouldn't the Trump administration bask in the glory of the stock market? People's 401ks are doing well. The obvious reason is that this wasn't a hearing on the economy, which is where this might be okay. This was a hearing on the Epstein files. That makes it a questionable time to bring this up to say the least, but that's not actually the most important reason.

Okay, so the Dow crossed over a milestone and stock valuations are through the roof. During Trump's first year from January 24, 2025 to January 23, 2026, the Dow went up 10.5%. That's average. That's not actually booming. But cool.

Why is it going up though? What exactly is making the market go up? Was it the job growth last year? It was absolutely dismal. If you exclude the global pandemic, it's the worst year for job growth since the Great Recession.

Well, then surely consumer confidence must be at an all-time high, signaling growth in the future, right? It's the worst since 2014. It's worse now than during the pandemic.

The expectations index must be doing great at least. Nope. It's been signaling recession since Trump took office.

Retail sales--growth didn't even beat inflation. When you adjust for inflation, they fallen.

The big companies must have huge hiring plans then. Nope. They're in layoff mode.

At least the deficit is shrinking. Nope, it's growing.

There's only one thing left. Obviously, the GDP is soaring, leaving the market wiggle room. The Buffett indicator is over 220%. And that's your big indicator.

The valuations of the market are too high. The market shouldn't be even doing average. It should be going down. Those valuations will correct. Pumping the market higher for political purposes in this kind of situation just leads to a bigger fall. The habit of politicians pumping the economy for short-term gain is why the Fed is independent, by the way.

There are probably people right now who believe in Trump and are hearing the rhetoric and they're looking at their current investment values and thinking about retiring. When that correction occurs, they might be in real trouble. The one thing I want everybody to remember is that Trump is claiming the market as his. Remember that later because there will come a day when he'll be desperately trying to say it's not his market. All those Congress people who voted against curtailing Trump's trade wars, they just co-signed his economy, don't forget them either.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

[Skittles]

1. I made the same observation

when Trump and his whores crowed about the 50000 mark, they OWNED it.......will be fun to watch them squirm when the inevitable correction comes