Between activism, election results and protest turnout, the prevailing political winds suggest the backlash to the president is real.
Headed into last weeks state legislative special elections, Democrats were confident about a contest in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The state House race was in a district that Kamala Harris carried by 19 points, and the partys candidate, Amanda Clinton, appeared well positioned to do at least as well.
The good news for Democrats was that their candidate prevailed
. The better news for Democrats was the margin: Clinton won a 69-point landslide, easily surpassing expectations.
In elections and special elections throughout the country, results like these have become rather common lately. After last weeks special elections in multiple states, The Downballot reported,
Overall, in 29 special elections this year, Democratic candidates have run 16.4 points ahead of the 2024 presidential results on average. G. Elliott Morris, the former director of data analytics at FiveThirtyEight, published a related analysis that pointed in the same direction.
.......Of course, the election data isnt the only relevant evidence. Take Saturdays No Kings events, for example. As The Washington Post reported:
Americans turned out en masse in communities across the country Saturday, raucously pushing back on what they see as President Donald Trumps widening authoritarianism, attacks on immigrants and deep cuts to scores of federal programs.
.......By any fair measure, the numbers were massive, not miniscule.
Indeed, around this time 16 years ago, there were so-called Tea Party gatherings, which generated considerable coverage and conversation, and which were seen as evidence of a burgeoning backlash against Barack Obamas agenda. Bu
t at no point could Tea Partiers generate anything comparable to the kind of numbers Donald Trumps critics generated on Saturday.
The broader significance deserves the political worlds attention: After Trumps 2024 victory, Americans heard a lot of talk, not only about Republican dominance and realignment results that would keep the GOP in power for a long while, but also about the idea that the anti-Trump resistance was a spent force. The presidents opponents and other democracy advocates, the argument went, were finished. The political playing field belonged to an energized and invigorated right.
Between activism, election results and protest turnout, those assumptions about the prevailing political winds are due for a reassessment.
The backlash to Trump is real.