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jgmiller

(604 posts)

10. The odds of Q2 being up are pretty slim

Reply to edbermac (Original post)

Thu Jun 26, 2025, 12:06 PM

Jun 26

So that means an official recession. Actually officially The Trump Recession!

Of course Trump will get his wish and the fed will cut rates but that's just to try and slow down the slide that he started.

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US economy shrank much faster in 1st quarter than previously reported [View all] edbermac Jun 26 OP

I Can Tell! OC375 Jun 26 #1

People are terrified of what's happening Johnny2X2X Jun 26 #2

Atlanta Fed had an estimate at like negative 2.5. They'll be cooking the Q2 books 617Blue Jun 26 #3

It isn't uncommon for GDPNOW to be way off FBaggins Jun 26 #14

The neg 2.5 was for Q1. My assumption 617Blue Jun 26 #15

Interesting. Here's a snapshot from March 26 of GDPNow and the Blue-chip consensus of *Q1* GDP progree Jun 26 #18

It was pretty eye popping. nt 617Blue Jun 26 #20

And is this the truth? Farmer-Rick Jun 26 #4

I've stopped buying anything but food and gas Ritabert Jun 26 #5

That's about all I spend on also. llmart Jun 26 #21

Exactly. I have more clothes than I need ... Ritabert Jun 26 #23

It's Biden's fault. Gimpyknee Jun 26 #6

If every quarter during Trump's entire term markodochartaigh Jun 26 #13

You know who's economy did not shrink in the first quarter? Bev54 Jun 26 #7

Also the Canadian 2nd quarter will moniss Jun 26 #8

And likely to get much. much worse. Scared consumers, gov't spending / research cuts, healthcare cuts, lots of Exp Jun 26 #9

The odds of Q2 being up are pretty slim jgmiller Jun 26 #10

Correcting some misinformation in some replies. Two negative quarters is NOT the official definition of a recession progree Jun 26 #11

Meh North Coast Lawyer Jun 26 #12

And because of this an administration can convince itself that it is doing a good job... Ol Janx Spirit Jun 26 #16

Huh? ProfessorGAC Jun 26 #17

GDP includes investment which means salaries and capital expenditures. Bernardo de La Paz Jun 26 #22

Makes Perfect Sense North Coast Lawyer Jun 27 #24

Gee. I wonder why. Karasu Jun 26 #19