Trump claimed victory in Iran. Leaks hint at months of retaliation

[Celerity]

Assessments suggest the US and Israel have made a miscalculation about the size and resilience of the Islamic Republic’s weapons stockpile

https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-retaliation-trump-us-war-rxdtbsptn

https://archive.li/Z67L0


Iran reveals its new ballistic missile in 2020
Press TV

President Trump has claimed that Iran’s military capabilities have been obliterated and he has declared victory at least twice. In the Middle East, however, a different picture has emerged, along with fears that Iranian attacks may persist for weeks or months to come. A US intelligence assessment last week reported that about a third of Iran’s missiles had been destroyed in thousands of United States and Israeli airstrikes during the war and another third may be disabled.



Half of Iran’s launchers are believed to be intact and the regime’s military is rapidly repairing its damaged missile bunkers, according to the assessments, which were leaked to American media. If confirmed this suggests that less damage has been caused to Iran’s ability to fire missiles than an Israeli assessment, which indicated about 60 per cent of roughly 470 launchers had been destroyed or disabled.



Sanam Vakil, who heads the Middle East programme at Chatham House, a think tank, said: “The fact that they are still causing disruption 37 days on suggests that there has been a miscalculation on the American and Israeli side.” Iran has launched fewer missiles and drones since it did in the first week of the war but its attacks appear to have become more precise. It has targeted oil and natural gas facilities across the region, as well as military bases, forcing the US to evacuate its troops from a base in Bahrain last week.



As the US prepares for an escalation with Iran after Trump’s threat to unleash “hell” and target power plants and bridges starting on Tuesday, Iran may increasingly use its remaining arsenal to target vital infrastructure in the Gulf. Regional officials and analysts say assessing Iran’s remaining capabilities is an inexact science and any estimates would rely on what the US and Israel knew of its arsenal before the war began. It was estimated to possess about 2,500 medium-range missiles before the war and thousands more short-range missiles as well as attack drones, which it produced on a mass scale.





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