Gerrymandering's impact on the midterms for the mathematically challenged

[Fiendish Thingy]

(That includes me)

Republican seats added by Gerrymander:
TX +5
FL +4
TN +1
AL +1 (maybe)
LA +1
MO +1
NC +1
OH +1
——————
Total= 14-15 seats

Dem seats added by redistricting:

CA +5
UT +1 (yes you read that right)
—————-
Total= 6 seats

Now subtract the Dem gains from Republican gains:

14-15 - 6 = 8-9 net seat gain for Republicans.

Right now, Republicans have a five seat margin in the house, however, five seats are vacant. If all those seats were filled, as they were on January 3, 2025, the margin would be 3 seats.

So, 3 seat margin, + 8-9 seat gain via gerrymandering = 11-12 seat hypothetical margin.

Except, Dems are projected to pickup a minimum of 20-30 seats.

That gives Dems, at the very, very, bare minimum an 8 seat majority.

Now, some folks are projecting Dems could pick up as many as 40-50 seats. In 2018, when Trump’s approval ratings were higher than they are now, and inflation and the economy were doing much better, Dems picked up 40 seats.

And there’s (at least) one more factor to consider:

All that republican gerrymandering required some solid red districts to be weakened, and some of the new red districts aren’t that strong.

Remember this: throughout the past year, 2024 Trump +20 districts were swinging 15-30 points towards the Dems in actual elections, not just opinion polls.

So, if they took a Trump +20 district and turned it into a Trump +5 district in order to create another Trump +5 district out of a formerly Harris +5 district…can you do the math?

(If you can’t here’s, what it means: Dems could win both of those districts by 10+ points, if overperformance trends hold)

I’m not feeling cocky, I’m not over confident, but based on the data, including the fact that the Trump-induced, Republican-enabled suffering spreading across all regional, racial and partisan boundaries is only going to increase in the next six months, I draw this conclusion:

Nothing can stop the Blue Tsunami in November