If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open soon, as seems likely, there will be a massive economic crash

[cachukis]

5. From another perspective

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/opinion/strait-of-hormuz-oil-iran-war-energy.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nlA.iUlI.hbj445Fv_z7o&smid=url-share

Markets are dynamic and always respond. First, some oil is already streaming out of the Gulf, either through the trickle of ships that make a run for it, some under U.S. protection, or through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Those pipes have the capacity to replace as much as a quarter of normal seaborne flows. Somewhat controversially, the Trump administration has also loosened sanctions on Russian oil to ease our own pain, even if oil money helps fund Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Second, the Gulf’s top Asian customers have introduced rationing and other conservation measures. China simply stopped importing for a few weeks. South Korea limited public sector workers to driving on alternate days. The Philippines told government employees to work four days in the office with limits on air-conditioning. Australia has drafted plans for mandatory rationing should the situation deteriorate.

Third, countries are scrambling to rebalance their energy mix. Before the Iran war, some 40 percent of China’s oil imports came from the Gulf. But the country uses oil for only 20 percent of its energy needs and has already begun to get more from Russia, Central Asia and the United States.