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WSHazel

(875 posts)
8. Demand destruction
Thu Jun 4, 2026, 08:38 AM
20 hrs ago

There is significant demand destruction that kicks in at $100/barrel, and it will go up as the price of oil goes up. A lot of that demand destruction will never return. This is why the Gulf States are working so hard to end run the Strait, and why the UAE dropped out of OPEC. The other side of this crisis is going to be over-supply.

I believe one of the key reasons that Trump started this conflict was to increase energy prices which would help U.S. producers and improve the trade deficit since the U.S. is a net exporter. It is a phenomenally stupid strategy, because the back end of this is lower oil prices than pre-conflict, which will crush U.S. producers who have some of the highest production costs in the world, but Trump doesn't care about the long or even intermediate term.

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4 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

The shit is on the wing orangecrush 21 hrs ago #1
The storage cushion is fudgy. bucolic_frolic 21 hrs ago #2
President Bone Spurs had a plan to get out of Vietnam. Emile 21 hrs ago #3
Daddy's not buying his way out of this one. dem4decades 21 hrs ago #4
From another perspective cachukis 21 hrs ago #5
there's definitely been some adaptation... but still a lot has been kept afloat by the reserves that are likely to run LymphocyteLover 15 hrs ago #27
No question. One of my worries is the takeover of cachukis 15 hrs ago #31
Absolutely. I totally agree on all those points. The stock market is particularly a mess IMO LymphocyteLover 14 hrs ago #32
Have invested mostly in real estate over the last cachukis 14 hrs ago #34
Why would " Diesel goes first"??? Melon 21 hrs ago #6
800,000 to 1.2 million SamuelTheThird 19 hrs ago #11
It's one country. Multiply across all oil producing Melon 11 hrs ago #41
Yes, but the key is how long the strait stays closed and how quickly the reserves run out LymphocyteLover 15 hrs ago #28
Diesel is often made from mideastern crude while gasoline is made from US crude JT45242 15 hrs ago #30
Completely wrong. GreatGazoo 20 hrs ago #7
lol@your link SamuelTheThird 19 hrs ago #10
You ignored all the numbers to nitpick about semantics GreatGazoo 19 hrs ago #15
Are America's strategic reserves at a 40 year low right before the summer season? SamuelTheThird 18 hrs ago #19
Traders in Singapore, Beijing and Mumbai aren't duped by whatever Trump says GreatGazoo 14 hrs ago #36
This message was self-deleted by its author LymphocyteLover 15 hrs ago #29
Futures Are Not Delivery modrepub 13 hrs ago #39
"futures price contracts probably isn't a good predictor of actual future prices" -- meaning spot prices, yes GreatGazoo 9 hrs ago #42
Appreciate your insight as I'm an admitted economic idiot. I can see where Exxon would be trying to "warn" Cheezoholic 17 hrs ago #21
Futures lock in a price right now GreatGazoo 16 hrs ago #22
Admittedly, Im no expert or even amateur...but SamuelTheThird 14 hrs ago #35
Since oil is sold as futures there is more profit when buyers panic about the future GreatGazoo 14 hrs ago #37
All hinging on a deal that isn't going to happen SamuelTheThird 13 hrs ago #38
Last week Exxon Mobil warned that oil inventories will fall to record low levels in coming weeks LymphocyteLover 14 hrs ago #33
Demand destruction WSHazel 20 hrs ago #8
"one of the key reasons that Trump started this conflict was to increase energy prices"-- agree LymphocyteLover 15 hrs ago #25
And it's all part of the plan... 2naSalit 19 hrs ago #9
Excellent summation. Kid Berwyn 19 hrs ago #12
I don't think the Strait of Hormuz never reopening is going to happen, but it will not reopen without a major shock ToxMarz 19 hrs ago #13
Agree. Thanks for the link. LymphocyteLover 15 hrs ago #24
Kick dalton99a 19 hrs ago #14
MAGA does the full collapse kairos12 19 hrs ago #16
First the bastids want to grift off it, if they can. GreenWave 19 hrs ago #17
But I thouight it would be open in two weeks. AverageOldGuy 18 hrs ago #18
That's the point. Blue Full Moon 18 hrs ago #20
Unbelievably awful LymphocyteLover 15 hrs ago #23
It's happening now as we speak. marble falls 15 hrs ago #26
Remember that the UAE left OPEC a few weeks ago WSHazel 12 hrs ago #40
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