If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open soon, as seems likely, there will be a massive economic crash

[ToxMarz]

13. I don't think the Strait of Hormuz never reopening is going to happen, but it will not reopen without a major shock

and that major shock I think is not too far off. Trump will never solve this until he is either forced to or taken out of the equation. Neither will happen until the situation becomes untenable.

Exxon sounds alarm on ‘unheard of’ oil problem
A top Exxon executive says the market is only weeks away from a level the industry almost never sees.
May 31, 2026 8:07 PM EDT

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/exxon-sounds-alarm-on-unheard-of-oil-problem

Markets have a strange way of staying calm right up until the moment they can no longer. Traders can watch the same warning lights blink for weeks, shrug, and keep pricing the world as if nothing has really changed. That has been the mood around oil for most of 2026.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s crude, has been throttled since late February. Tankers cross only when Iran allows them to. And still, oil futures spent much of the spring drifting lower instead of higher, as traders bet on a ceasefire that keeps getting promised and never quite arrives.

Pump prices have climbed, but the futures market has acted as if the supply shock is mostly in the rearview mirror. For months, government stockpiles and emergency reserve releases have quietly papered over just how tight the physical market has become.

Then a senior executive at one of the biggest oil companies on the planet stepped up to a microphone in New York and said the quiet part out loud.