From the article,
Regardless of the bill’s final maximum credit figure, an estimated 17 million children still wouldn’t qualify for the full benefit, according to an analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (
https://www.cbpp.org/press/statements/senate-republicans-leaders-plan-doubles-down-on-disastrous-house-path-higher-costs).
That’s because the child tax credit isn’t fully refundable. As of 2025, families who who don’t owe income taxes and earn less than $2,500 cannot claim any portion of the child tax credit. Those earning more than $2,500 may qualify for the additional child tax credit — the refundable portion of the credit worth up to $1,700. Families with incomes over $2,500 can receive up to $1,700 as a refund if the rest of the child tax credit covers their tax liability.
Around 2 million children don’t currently qualify for any of the child tax credit because their families earn less than $2,500, according to the Tax Policy Center (
https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/17-million-children-low-income-families-will-not-receive-full-child-tax-credit-2025) . Another 15 million receive some, but not the full credit, because their families make more than $2,500, but not enough that their income taxes exceed the amount that enables them to claim the full credit.
I haven't checked out the links, maybe they have some lovely graph or table that makes all this clear.
About 20 years ago, I had a friend with a young child who made just $16,000 one year - she got a huge Earned Income Tax Credit plus the full child tax credit at the time ($1,000), even though she paid in no taxes during the year (no withholding, no estimated taxes, no payroll tax nada; she was self-employed). They subtracted out what she owed in FICA taxes (Social Security and Medicare taxes, about $2,500), but there was still like $900 left over that she got as a check. (note to self: ref 2 2 . A I M )
Edited to correct the figures in the last paragraph.
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