They are quoting directly from the linked CBO report -
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Effects on Real GDP. Economic activity at the end of 2025 will be lower as a result of the shutdown. That decline will be driven by three factors: Fewer services will be provided by federal workers, federal spending on goods and services and SNAP benefits will be temporarily lower, and a temporary reduction in aggregate demand will lower output in the private sector. Real GDP will rebound when federal funding resumes, with most of the forgone output made up in the future. The reduction in output stemming from the time furloughed employees did not work will not be recovered.
In all three scenarios that the agency analyzed, the shutdown leads to a temporary economic slowdown. Real GDP is lower in the fourth quarter of 2025 than it otherwise would have been; the reduction in economic activity will intensify the longer the shutdown persists. The rebound in federal spending for employee compensation, the purchases of goods and services, and SNAP benefits that occurs after the shutdown ends reverses most of the reduction in economic activity. The uptick in economic activity stems mainly from the higher federal spending on goods and services and the associated increase in aggregate demand as households and businesses boost their spending in response to the restoration of their income following the shutdown.
The agency estimates that the annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 would be lower by 1.0 percentage point in the four-week shutdown scenario, 1.5 percentage points in the six-week scenario, and 2.0 percentage points in the eight-week scenario (see Table 2). In the first quarter of 2026, as federal spending continued to rebound following the resumption of funding after the shutdown, real GDP growth would be boosted by 1.4 percentage points, 2.2 percentage points, and 3.1 percentage points in the three scenarios, respectively. The effect on the annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP (that is, how fast real GDP increased compared with how fast it would have grown in the absence of a shutdown) would be larger after federal funding resumed because output would be temporarily higher than it would have been otherwise. After the first quarter of 2026, the temporary boost to the level of real GDP would diminish as output returns toward the level it would have been in the absence of the shutdown, causing the effect on the growth rate to temporarily turn negative.
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