Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls may be larger than it seems. Here’s why.

[GvilleDem]

4. There is a logical reason they undercounted minorities in 2012

In 2012 polling sites assumed that Barrack Obama wouldn't top the minority turnout he received in 2008, which was already a very high number. They assumed that the underwhelming performance of Obama's first term alongside the negative media and the multiple cases of voter suppression would cut into the minority vote a bit.

Instead what happened is that the republican party mobilized the minority vote by trying to suppress their vote. This was fuel to the fire for many civil rights groups, who pushed people to go out to vote in reaction, however, many of these voter suppression cases were overturned and those remaining were less significant then the number of voters who were pushed to the voting booths in reaction. Ultimately this brought more people out to vote for Obama, not less.

We could see similiar with Trump. His hate speeches increase the stakes and make voting more valuable for minorities. I just want to bring this up because there is a reason polling places miscounted the minority vote and, as wrong as it turned out to be, they were earnestly trying to make predictions, not trying to empower a republican candidate.