SP500 Tuesday 4/28 at 7139, down 0.5% # ADP private payrolls +39,250 jobs a week # Consumer confidence slight up

[progree]

This discussion thread is pinned.

Last edited Tue Apr 28, 2026, 05:35 PM - Edit history (273)

The title line always has the closing price of the S&P 500, and the change since the previous close. I shortened it a bit to leave more room in the title line for mentions of key reports

I will be doing these only twice a week again: Tuesday and Friday

10Y Treasury, in chronological order: It local-bottomed out at 3.95% Oct 22, 2025, its lowest point since April 2025. . 4.19% on Dec 2, 2025, , 4.27% on Feb 3, 2026, , 3.96% on Feb 27 (just before Iran War), , 4.12% on March 5, , 4.44% on Friday March 27, 4.31% on April 24
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y (best) -or- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/
10 Year Treasury price: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZN%3DF/

Bitcoin, In chronological order: It was $95,401 Jan 16, , $84,009 on Jan 30, , $75,512 on Feb 3, , $65,564 on Feb 27, , $71,357 on March 13 , , $74,580 March 17 $65,795 @ 440p ET, $77,592 @ 1129p ET April 24 ##### It's in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (20% down from $126,000 is $100,800) ACTUALLY, it's down 38% from $126,000 (Cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/

Next Fed rate decision: THIS WEDNESDAY April 29 (last was March 18)
CME FedWatch tool (probabilities of various Fed interest rate moves) 4/24: 1% chance of a rate HIKE) and ZERO % chance of a rate cut
. . . https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

The Table -------- TUESDAY 4/28/26 -----

The S&P 500 closed Tuesday April 28 at 7139, down 0.5% for the day,
and up 23.4% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 19.0% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 21.4% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 4.3% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)

The Dow closed Monday at 49,168, and it closed Tuesday at 49,142, a drop of 0.1% (26 points) for the day

ALL TIME HIGHS
The S&P 500's all-time closing high was 6978.6 on January 27 until surpassed April 15
The DOW's all-time closing high was 50,188 reached on February 10
The NASDAQ's all-time closing high was 23,857 reached on January 28 until surpassed in April

Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/

How to find the latest Yahoo Finance "stock market today" report if it's not at the finance.yahoo page (note that the headline displayed there does not include the "Stock Market Today" words, but the article itself does): click on
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com&oq=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com

If the link doesn't work for you,
Google: "stock market today" site:finance.yahoo.com

First I will very briefly cover Monday (just the link to the article), then on to Tuesday 4/28
--
Monday April 27

S&P 500: +0.12%, , DOW: -0.13% (-63 points), , NASDAQ: +0.20%, ,
TREASURY 10Yr: 4.34% +0.03 , , Bitcoin: $76,945 @ 420p ET , , WTI OIL: $96.42 +2.14%
Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq notch fresh records, oil edges higher as markets weigh Iran peace odds, Yahoo Finance, Monday 4/27/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/live/stock-market-today-monday-april-27-232226050.html

--- SCROLLING DOWN THE ABOVE YAHOO FINANCE PAGE, MONDAY, APRIL 27 -----


--- OTHER ARTICLES, MONDAY, APRIL 27 -----

This is a little older. But since the PCE inflation report comes out this Friday April 30, I'll leave it here for awhile
Inflation complications: The unusual gap between PCE and CPI is widening, Barron's (no paywall at this MSN-hosted article), 4/22/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/inflation-complications-the-unusual-gap-between-pce-and-cpi-is-widening/ar-AA21rnrB


Tuesday April 28

S&P 500: -0.49%, , DOW: -0.05% (-26 points), , NASDAQ: -0.90%, ,
TREASURY 10Yr: 4.35% +0.02 , , Bitcoin: $76,376 @ 422p ET , , WTI OIL: $99.63 +3.38%

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq drop as chip stocks sink on OpenAI report, oil rises, Yahoo Finance, Tuesday April 28
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/live/stock-market-today-tuesday-april-28-dow-nasdaq-sp-oil-rises-earnings-in-focus-225503557.html

US stocks slipped from record highs on Tuesday as OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) doubts weighed on tech stocks and the United Arab Emirates said it would leave the OPEC group of oil producers.

OpenAI has fallen short of its own targets for sales and users ahead of its highly anticipated IPO, the Wall Street Journal reported. Shares of partners such as Oracle (ORCL) slumped amid revived concerns about how long the AI spending boom will last.

Investors are now on high alert for clues to AI plans as the “Magnificent Seven” tech megacaps report quarterly results this week. Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are on Wednesday’s docket, with Apple (AAPL) following the next day.

Meanwhile, the oil market is digesting news that the UAE is leaving the OPEC cartel, a move that deals a major blow to the bloc at an already historically precarious moment for Persian Gulf oil producers.

Wall Street is also watching for progress in peace talks, as the US-Iran standoff keeps traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill.

Brent crude (BZ=F) traded near $104 per barrel, while US WTI crude (CL=F) hovered near $100.

Also in focus, the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday. Policymakers are expected to hold rates steady in their decision on Wednesday, and investors will listen out for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments as his term draws to a close.

--- SCROLLING DOWN THE ABOVE YAHOO FINANCE PAGE, TUESDAY, APRIL 28 -----

I have another time constraint situation, so I'm skipping this, unfortunately, since there are invariably a number of interesting articles

--- OTHER ARTICLES, TUESDAY, APRIL 28 -----

THESE SHOULD BE PUT IN THE REPORTS AND CALENDAR SECTION, BUT FOR NOW THEY ARE HERE

These are 3 reports that came out Tueday April 28, 2026

# Consumer confidence (Conference Board) :
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/consumer-confidence-ticks-higher-as-better-vibes-on-job-market-take-hold-144621322.html

Consumer confidence in April reached its highest level so far this year, according to a survey from the Conference Board.

The overall consumer confidence index climbed to 92.8 in April, up from March’s reading of 92.2 ... perceptions of the labor market improved (in the wake of the reported 178,000 net jobs added in March)

ULTIMATE SOURCE: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
GRAPH:

It was a tiny uptick when you look at it on a graph.


# ADP PULSE -- ADP's weekly estimate of private sector job growth.
https://www.adpresearch.com/
Find the "The NER Pulse" section near the top, and click on Read More, resulting in:
https://www.adpresearch.com/the-power-of-mom-and-pops/

Scroll down the page for a graph

For the four weeks ending April 11, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs a week ((which, when "monthesized" is a monthly rate of 170,541 -progree). It's slightly less than it was the week ending (W.E.) March 28 and also the week ending April 4 ( W.E. March 28 is the peak of the graph going back to W.E. Jan 24; W.E. March 28 is a bit over 40,000 from the graph). W.E. April 04 is slightly less that W.E. March 28. So there was a substantial downward revision from the initial W.E. April 4 report of an extraordinarily large 54,750 jobs a week (a 237,889 / month pace).

ADP is a private payroll processor that processes about 20% of the U.S. private payroll, and they estimate the other 80%. It is not a government report.

# S&P Case Shiller home price index (20 cities) February: +0.9% Y-O-Y (January was +1.2%). For the month, February was +0.44%.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-cotality-case-shiller/
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-cotality-case-shiller/#indices

========EVERYTHING BELOW THIS POINT IS AS IT WAS FRIDAY APRIL 24, SORRY=======

I have time constraints today.

========EVERYTHING BELOW THIS POINT IS AS IT WAS FRIDAY APRIL 24, SORRY=======


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REPORTS AND CALENDAR

Recent and Coming Up, Reports
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

See Reply #1 to this thread for last week's reports and older reports.


The government reports are all seasonally adjusted, as are most, if not all, of the non-government reports the media covers, so please don't post comments about how the numbers look good (or not as bad as expected) only because of Christmas season hires or Christmas shopping. Or that it's warming up and people are beginning spring shopping already -- seasonal factors like that have been adjusted for

THIS WEEK'S REPORTS/CALENDAR (Apr 20-24) FOLLOWED BY NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR (Apr 27-May 1)


LAST WEEK'S REPORTS (APR 13 - 17)
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These are all in Reply #1 in reverse chronological order. In a break from past practice, I am no longer putting last week's reports in this OP.


THIS WEEK'S REPORTS and CALENDAR (APR 20 - 24)
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https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar


MONDAY APRIL 20 (REPORTS)

None scheduled

TUESDAY APRIL 21 (REPORTS)


#Record surge in gasoline receipts boosts US retail sales in March Reuters, 4/21/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/record-surge-in-gasoline-receipts-boosts-us-retail-sales-in-march/ar-AA21orii
(((March: +1.7%, February: +0.7%, 12 months: +4.0% -progree))
((Retail sales are not inflation-adjusted, so sometimes most or all and then some of the increase is due to the increase in prices -progree))
((CPI inflation: March: +0.9%, February: +0.3%, 12 months: +3.3%. So this time retail sales actually exceeded price increases. Simply subtracting the inflation from the retail sales increase, the after-inflation retail sales increases are roughly: March: +0.8%, February: +0.4%, 12 months: +0.7%. Kind of weak for 12 months -progree ))

Though higher prices partly accounted for the largest gain in sales in a year, the report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday supported economists' expectations that economic growth picked up in the first quarter after nearly stalling in the final three months of 2025. But the U.S.-Israel war with Iran is casting a shadow over the economic outlook.

February was revised up from +0.6% to 0.7%.

The Middle East conflict has sent global oil prices jumping more than 30%, with data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing retail gasoline prices soared 24.1% in March. . . .

Consumer Price Index increased 0.9% in March, with gasoline being the main driver of higher inflation.

The average tax refund was up $351 through March 27 compared to the same period in 2025, Internal Revenue Service data showed. The Treasury Department estimated that the average tax refund would be $1,000 higher compared to 2024.

From the Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html -- > https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html :
. . . Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (Month-over-month) (MARTSMPCSM44X72USN), Not Seasonally Adjusted:
. . . . . . https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USN
. . . Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (Month-over-month) (MARTSMPCSM44X72USS), Seasonally Adjusted:
. . . . . . https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USS
. . . Advance REAL Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (Month-over-month) Seasonally Adjusted -- I have not found this yet, until someone does, one has to calculate using the index values in series RRSFS below.
. . . Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (RSAFS) (index values), seasonally adjusted
. . . . . . https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAFS
. . . Advance REAL Retail and Food Services Sales (RRSFS) (i.e. inflation adjusted) (index values), seasonally adjusted
. . . . . . https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/RRSFS

# ADP Pulse: For the four weeks ending April 4, 2026, U.S. PRIVATE employers added an average of 54,750 jobs a week. It was the fifth straight week of improvement in hiring. These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added

Multiplying by 52.14/12 to "monthesize it" to the average month: 237,889
(There are 52.14 weeks in a 365-day year, and 12 months).

The ultimate source: https://www.adpresearch.com/

It has a graph (scroll down half a page) showing it was about 15,000/week in mid-February -- https://www.adpresearch.com/the-rise-and-rise-of-knowledge-work/

(ADP is a private payroll processor that process about 20% of the U.S. private payroll, and they estimate the other 80%)


# Business inventories February, actual: +0.4%, expected: +0.3%, previous: +0.0%

# US pending home sales beat expectations in March, Reuters, 4/21/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-pending-home-sales-beat-expectations-in-march/ar-AA21otG8

The pending home sales index rose 1.5% last month to 73.7, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday.

Pending home sales dropped 1.1% from a year earlier.

The popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.38% at the end of March, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. It had averaged 5.98% at the end of February, just before the war started, as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae expanded purchases of mortgage-backed securities.

The NAR reported last week that existing home sales fell to a nine-month low in March.

A survey last week showed homebuilder sentiment plummeted to a seven-month low in April, noting that "energy costs make up approximately 4% of residential construction material input and service costs."

WEDNESDAY APRIL 22 (REPORTS)

None scheduled

THURSDAY APRIL 23 (REPORTS)

# Initial jobless claims week ending April 18, actual: 214,000, expected: 210,000, previous: 207,000

Reuters: +6,000 to 214,000 week ending 4/18. Continuing claims: +12,000 to 1.821M for the week ending 4/11. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-124003060.html

* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
This report's permalink: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260423
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"
* The source URL has graphs, so one can see the trend over a year

Not-to-forget factoid from last week's report:
Reuters, 4/16/26 - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-decline-123856207.html
***The so-called continuing claims have dropped from last year's lofty levels likely in part due to people exhausting their eligibility for benefits, limited to 26 weeks in most states. The data does not include some unemployed young workers, who typically have a limited or no work history. The job market for this group remains challenging.

# S&P flash U.S. services PMI April, actual: 51.3, expected: 51.0, previous: 49.8
(anything below 50 means contraction)

# S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI April, actual: 54.0, expected: 52.5, previous: 52.3

[S&P Global Flash] US business activity expands while prices rise most since 2022, Bloomberg, 4/23/26 == https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-business-activity-expands-while-prices-rise-most-since-2022/ar-AA21ySEl

US business activity picked up in April, fueled by the strongest manufacturing growth in nearly four years as war-related supply disruptions prompted a scramble for supplies.

The S&P Global flash composite index rose 1.7 points to a three-month high of 52, data released Thursday showed. Figures above 50 indicate expansion. A measure of prices charged by manufacturers and service providers accelerated to the highest level since mid-2022.

. . . The Iran war also led to greater supply constraints for factories, with lead times on supplier deliveries stretching to the longest since August 2022 and materials costs accelerating. The measure of input prices for manufacturers grew at the fastest rate in nearly a year.

Businesses are quickly passing those costs along, as the composite measure of selling prices increased to 59.9, the highest since July 2022.

“Not surprisingly, prices are already spiking higher in this environment, and not just for energy but for a wide variety of goods and services. The overall inflation picture is now the most worrying for almost four years,” said Williamson.

Meanwhile, service sector activity recovered from last month's contraction, though remains subdued. A measure of new business slid to a two-year low.

FRIDAY APRIL 24 (REPORTS)

# Consumer sentiment (FINAL) April,

# Consumer sentiment final reading (49.8 in April) - has a graph -- Consumer sentiment at record low as Americans feel impact of war in Iran, Yahoo Finance, 4/24/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-at-record-low-as-americans-feel-impact-of-war-in-iran-142920073.html

# LBN thread on consumer sentiment - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143655889
The title of the thread says it's near a 4-year low, but they (Reuters via U.S. News) later changed the title to say it was at a record low.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-04-24/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-to-near-four-year-low-in-april


NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR (APR 27-May 1)
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https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

The Fed's interest rate decision is Wednesday April 29

Thursday April 30 is busy with the PCE inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), personal income and expenditures, Q1 GDP 1st estimate, leading economic indicators, and unemployment insurance claims,

MONDAY, APRIL 27 (CALENDAR)

None scheduled

TUESDAY, APRIL 28 (CALENDAR)

9:00 am S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) February, Previous: 1.2%

10:00 am Consumer confidence April, Expected: 89.1, Previous: 91.8

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 29 (CALENDAR)

8:30 am Durable-goods orders March, Expected: 0.5%, Previous: -1.4%
8:30 am Durable-goods minus transportation March, Previous: 0.8%

8:30 am Housing starts (delayed report) February, Expected: 1.35 million, Previous: 1.49 million

8:30 am Building permits (delayed report) February, Previous: 1.38 million

8:30 am Housing starts March, Expected: 1.38 million --

8:30 am Building permits March, Expected: 1.39 million --

8:30 am Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods March, Previous: 83.5 billion

8:30 am Advanced retail inventories March, -- Previous: 0.2%

8:30 am Advanced wholesale inventories March, -- Previous: 0.8%

2:00 pm FOMC interest-rate decision

THURSDAY, APRIL 30 (CALENDAR)

8:30 am Initial jobless claims April 25, Expected: 215,000, Previous: 214,000

8:30 am Employment cost index Q1, Expected: 0.9% Previous: 0.7%

8:30 am GDP Q1 Expected: 2.4%, Previous: 0.5%

8:30 am Personal income March, Expected: 0.3%, Previous: -0.1%
8:30 am Personal spending March, Expected: 0.9%, Previous: 0.5%
8:30 am PCE inflation index March, Expected: 0.7%, Previous: 0.4%

8:30 am PCE (year-over-year), Expected: 3.5%, Previous: 2.8%

8:30 am Core PCE index March, Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%

8:30 am Core PCE (year-over-year), Expected: 3.2%, Previous: 3.0%

9:45 am Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) April, -- Previous: 52.8

10:00 am U.S. leading economic indicators February, -- Previous: -0.1%

FRIDAY, May 1 (CALENDAR)

9:45 am S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI April, -- Previous: 55.7

10:00 am ISM manufacturing April, Expected: 52.9, Previous: 52.7

####### -.CAL #########

The full calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

BEA.GOV news release schedule (they produce reports on the GDP, Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), and Personal Consumption and Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

ADP NER Pulse (private payrolls weekly update): Is every Tuesday. The ultimate source: https://www.adpresearch.com/
and look for "NER Pulse"

Archives of previous reports

The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ) . That opens up links to reports going back to 1994. (Includes CPI, ECI, many others)

Unemployment insurance claims archives: https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp . If that doesn't work, start with https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp and click on "Weekly Claims Data" near the very bottom.

BEA's Data Archive https://www.bea.gov/news/archive

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The S&P 500 closed Friday April 24 at 7165, up 0.8% for the day, to a new all-time high
and up 23.9% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 19.5% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 21.8% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 4.7% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)

# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 6845
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90, surpassed by December 24's all-time high of 6932.00 surpassed by ...

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
# S&P 500 futures: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/

Bitcoin
Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,429. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Bitcoin's all-time interday high: 126,198 on Oct. 6
Bitcoin's all-time closing high: 124,753 on Oct 6. (that's what Yahoo Finance shows, but cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/

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I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).

The Dow closed Thursday at 49,310, and it closed Friday at 49,231, a drop of 0.2% (80 points) for the day

https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 48,063

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)



I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil


US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)


If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
🚨 ❤️ 😬! 😱 < - - emoticon library for future uses