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African coastlines face unprecedented sea level surge crisis [View all]
https://science.uct.ac.za/articles/2026-03-19-african-coastlines-face-unprecedented-sea-level-surge-crisis18 March 2026 | Story Ridovhona Mbulaheni
A groundbreaking study led by researchers at the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) Department of Oceanography has revealed that Africa’s coastlines are facing a rapidly accelerating crisis.
It found that the 2023–2024 El Niño event triggered the most significant sea level surge ever recorded in the region, exceeding even the historically powerful 1997–1998 event and highlighting a dangerous new reality for the continent’s coastal nations.
The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, analysed over three decades of satellite data spanning from 1993 to 2024 across the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea and adjacent waters surrounding Africa. Regional sea levels have risen by 11.26 cm since 1993, outpacing the global average and accelerating at a rate of 0.14 mm per year squared, faster than previously documented.
A record-breaking climate event
When the long-term trend of rising seas is removed to isolate the effect of natural climate cycles, the 2023–2024 El Niño produced a sea level anomaly of 27 mm, the largest on record. This dwarfs the 1997–1998 El Niño, considered one of the most powerful climate events of the 20th century, which produced a smaller anomaly of roughly 19 mm.
…
Kemgang Ghomsi, F.E., Stroeve, J., Crawford, A. et al. 2023-2024 El Niño amplifies record sea level surges in African marine domains. Commun Earth Environ 7, 179 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03204-9A groundbreaking study led by researchers at the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) Department of Oceanography has revealed that Africa’s coastlines are facing a rapidly accelerating crisis.
It found that the 2023–2024 El Niño event triggered the most significant sea level surge ever recorded in the region, exceeding even the historically powerful 1997–1998 event and highlighting a dangerous new reality for the continent’s coastal nations.
The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, analysed over three decades of satellite data spanning from 1993 to 2024 across the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea and adjacent waters surrounding Africa. Regional sea levels have risen by 11.26 cm since 1993, outpacing the global average and accelerating at a rate of 0.14 mm per year squared, faster than previously documented.
A record-breaking climate event
When the long-term trend of rising seas is removed to isolate the effect of natural climate cycles, the 2023–2024 El Niño produced a sea level anomaly of 27 mm, the largest on record. This dwarfs the 1997–1998 El Niño, considered one of the most powerful climate events of the 20th century, which produced a smaller anomaly of roughly 19 mm.
…
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