"Disaster Preppers"

[txlibdem]

33. Scale back to a billion people?

That'll make the Skull & Bones Society's day, sure, but I don't think this is what's going to happen.

You say:
"My bet is on disruptions to the food supply brought about by a convergence of oil depletion, climate change, soil and water exhaustion, the death of the oceans and a global economic depression. If that happens, then pandemics due to a breakdown of health care systems around the world as a consequence of the ensuing rupture of civil society become a high probability."

Apparently you've never heard of hydroponics and Vertical Farms or Urban Farms. We don't need to farm in the dirt any more. Dirt farming wastes 70% of the fresh water resources of the world. Hydroponic growing takes 5% of the water needed for dirt farming. Oil depletion will be a serious issue but we can grow crops without oil if we have Vertical Farms in or near our cities and some Urban Farming to round out the supply of food.

Your thinking is based on how we do things today: the most wasteful and inefficient methods are used in almost every industry.

The world could easily support a population of 20 Billion people all living an American (or at least European) lifestyle with every modern convenience; each with access to the finest schools, clean water and air, enough nutritious food, freedoms and the ability to instantly communicate at will to any human they wish. All we have to do is manage resources better and end our wasteful current system.