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TexasTowelie
TexasTowelie's Journal
TexasTowelie's Journal
May 14, 2026
Kadyrov may be closer to betraying Putin than the Kremlin wants anyone to believe, because this text argues that Ramzan Kadyrovs loyalty to Moscow was never built on real unity or love for the Russian state, but on a very expensive political deal in which the Kremlin keeps Chechnya financially satisfied and politically protected in exchange for outward stability and staged loyalty. The problem for Vladimir Putin is that loyalty bought with money, fear, and personal arrangements is never permanent, especially if Moscow starts looking weak, distracted, or exhausted by the war in Ukraine.
According to the text, Chechnya is not just another Russian region with an obedient governor. It is a republic with its own history, trauma, pride, armed networks, and memory of fighting Moscow, which means Kadyrov is less like a normal regional administrator and more like a local power center sitting inside the Russian Federation on highly conditional terms.
The text points to several warning signs, including Kadyrovs earlier statement that Chechnya had already contributed more than enough fighters to the war, a line that no ordinary Russian governor could have said without immediate consequences, and the famously suspicious traffic jam explanation during the Prigozhin mutiny, when Chechen forces were supposedly on their way to defend Moscow but somehow arrived only after the danger had already passed. That moment is presented as proof that Kadyrovs first instinct is not blind loyalty to Putin, but survival, calculation, and protection of his own power base.
The description also argues that Kadyrovs legacy question is becoming more important, especially given ongoing public speculation about his health and the future of his family system in Chechnya. If he begins thinking less about maintenance and more about how history will remember him, then the idea of ending as Moscows paid enforcer may become far less attractive than positioning himself, or his successors, as defenders of Chechen dignity and autonomy. That is why the larger danger for the Kremlin is not only that Chechnya could eventually challenge Moscow, but that it could prove challenge is possible at all. If Putin fails in Ukraine, if Russias economy weakens further, if elite conflicts grow, and if Chechnya shows that even one powerful republic can openly pressure the center, then the myth of Putins strong vertical power begins to crack for everyone else as well. In that sense, the text frames Chechnya as one of the most dangerous internal pressure points in Russia, and Kadyrov not as a loyal subordinate, but as a regional ruler whose cooperation lasts only as long as Putin remains useful, strong, and able to pay the bill.
Kadyrov is About to Betray Putin. - The Russian Dude
Kadyrov may be closer to betraying Putin than the Kremlin wants anyone to believe, because this text argues that Ramzan Kadyrovs loyalty to Moscow was never built on real unity or love for the Russian state, but on a very expensive political deal in which the Kremlin keeps Chechnya financially satisfied and politically protected in exchange for outward stability and staged loyalty. The problem for Vladimir Putin is that loyalty bought with money, fear, and personal arrangements is never permanent, especially if Moscow starts looking weak, distracted, or exhausted by the war in Ukraine.
According to the text, Chechnya is not just another Russian region with an obedient governor. It is a republic with its own history, trauma, pride, armed networks, and memory of fighting Moscow, which means Kadyrov is less like a normal regional administrator and more like a local power center sitting inside the Russian Federation on highly conditional terms.
The text points to several warning signs, including Kadyrovs earlier statement that Chechnya had already contributed more than enough fighters to the war, a line that no ordinary Russian governor could have said without immediate consequences, and the famously suspicious traffic jam explanation during the Prigozhin mutiny, when Chechen forces were supposedly on their way to defend Moscow but somehow arrived only after the danger had already passed. That moment is presented as proof that Kadyrovs first instinct is not blind loyalty to Putin, but survival, calculation, and protection of his own power base.
The description also argues that Kadyrovs legacy question is becoming more important, especially given ongoing public speculation about his health and the future of his family system in Chechnya. If he begins thinking less about maintenance and more about how history will remember him, then the idea of ending as Moscows paid enforcer may become far less attractive than positioning himself, or his successors, as defenders of Chechen dignity and autonomy. That is why the larger danger for the Kremlin is not only that Chechnya could eventually challenge Moscow, but that it could prove challenge is possible at all. If Putin fails in Ukraine, if Russias economy weakens further, if elite conflicts grow, and if Chechnya shows that even one powerful republic can openly pressure the center, then the myth of Putins strong vertical power begins to crack for everyone else as well. In that sense, the text frames Chechnya as one of the most dangerous internal pressure points in Russia, and Kadyrov not as a loyal subordinate, but as a regional ruler whose cooperation lasts only as long as Putin remains useful, strong, and able to pay the bill.
May 13, 2026
Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) joins Meet the Press NOW to discuss President Trumps summit with President Xi Jinping in Beijing and how the war with Iran may impact the power balance between the two global superpowers.
Sen. Duckworth: 'China is benefiting from Trump's actions against Iran' - NBC News
Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) joins Meet the Press NOW to discuss President Trumps summit with President Xi Jinping in Beijing and how the war with Iran may impact the power balance between the two global superpowers.
May 13, 2026
Watch Rep. Kamlager-Dove rip House Republicans for holding a hearing on Sharia law instead of the terrible policies of the Trump administration that have increased costs for Americans across the country.
Kamlager-Dove Shreds Republicans' Delusional "Sharia Law" Hearing - Reflect Politics
Watch Rep. Kamlager-Dove rip House Republicans for holding a hearing on Sharia law instead of the terrible policies of the Trump administration that have increased costs for Americans across the country.
May 13, 2026
As Russian strategic bombers continue to launch strikes against Ukraine, the city of Engels home to one of Russia's most important air bases is facing a crisis of its own. Following heavy flooding and infrastructure failures, local authorities declared a state of emergency when the city's sewer system reportedly collapsed, affecting hundreds of thousands of residents. Meanwhile, cities like Omsk are pouring resources into military production while struggling with deteriorating roads, public services, and basic infrastructure. In a new episode of Break the Fake, Jonasz Rewiński takes a look at the situations in Engels and Omsk and the state of Russian infrastructure in general. He also explains why more Russians are beginning to question where the country's resources are really going.
Chapters:
00:00 - Intro
00:07 - "Putin Among the People" another episode of Russian propaganda
02:02 - How propaganda selects a random passersby
02:45 - Sewage system collapse in Engels
05:56 - Infrastructure failure in Omsk
08:27 - Missile costs vs. road repair costs
Putin's "Great Power" is literally overflowing with sewage - Break the Fake - TVP WORLD
As Russian strategic bombers continue to launch strikes against Ukraine, the city of Engels home to one of Russia's most important air bases is facing a crisis of its own. Following heavy flooding and infrastructure failures, local authorities declared a state of emergency when the city's sewer system reportedly collapsed, affecting hundreds of thousands of residents. Meanwhile, cities like Omsk are pouring resources into military production while struggling with deteriorating roads, public services, and basic infrastructure. In a new episode of Break the Fake, Jonasz Rewiński takes a look at the situations in Engels and Omsk and the state of Russian infrastructure in general. He also explains why more Russians are beginning to question where the country's resources are really going.
Chapters:
00:00 - Intro
00:07 - "Putin Among the People" another episode of Russian propaganda
02:02 - How propaganda selects a random passersby
02:45 - Sewage system collapse in Engels
05:56 - Infrastructure failure in Omsk
08:27 - Missile costs vs. road repair costs
May 13, 2026
Well, howdy there internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump admitting he doesn't care about you.
One of the things I loved about treating elderly women is when they reach that age where they just don't feel the need to sugarcoat things for people they don't like anymore. It always provided some of the most humorous moments. Trump is now that elderly woman.
Trump was asked, "When you're negotiating with Iran, Mr. President, to what extent are Americans financial situations motivating you to make a deal?" He said, "Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about Americans financial situation. I don't think about anybody.
This is perhaps the most truthful thing Trump has ever said in public and there's a whole lot to dive into. Let's be clear on something. Iran was not actively seeking a nuke. US intelligence assessments and the International Atomic Energy Agency both said Iran did not have an active nuclear weapons program despite having all that uranium. The US intelligence consensus is that Iran hasn't had an active nuclear weapons program in more than 20 years. Trump's claims about Iran's nuclear weapons program are the same as Bush's claims about Iraq's WMDs.
Beyond that, despite all of the bombing and all of the money Trump and Hegseth basically lit on fire during Operation Epic Failure, the timeline for Iran to achieve a nuke if they started an active program is unchanged. So, he's solely focused on one thing and has failed to accomplish that because they've waged a war around sound bites rather than objectives.
Take out the stuff about why he doesn't care. And he says, "Not even a little bit. I don't think about Americans financial situation. I don't think about anybody." No lies detected, Mr. President.
He told you the one Big Beautiful Bill was going to make your life better. Has it? He told you that manufacturing was coming back. He told you the US was entering a Golden Age.
When they passed the one big beautiful for billionaires package, it was about tax cuts for the rich. Do I believe they considered Americans financial situations during that? Not even a little bit. I don't think they thought about Americans financial situation. I don't think they thought about anybody except themselves.
If you take Trump's quote and apply it to his entire administration and every action, if you assume the only thing that matters are the things that benefit him and his wealthy friends, every single action he's taken makes complete sense.
Many Republicans will blow this off, but those who aren't in an echo chamber singing Trump's praises won't. If the Democratic party doesn't use this soundbite every day between now and the election every single campaign adviser needs to think about a different line of work. Candidate sings the praises of Trump or says they support his policies--play the clip. Then play, I don't think about Americans financial situations.
Trump's unnecessary elective war has put a lot of very sharp pebbles in a lot of shoes. People need to understand he doesn't care. Not even a little bit.
Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
Let's talk about Trump admitting he doesn't care about you.... - Belle of the Ranch
Well, howdy there internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump admitting he doesn't care about you.
One of the things I loved about treating elderly women is when they reach that age where they just don't feel the need to sugarcoat things for people they don't like anymore. It always provided some of the most humorous moments. Trump is now that elderly woman.
Trump was asked, "When you're negotiating with Iran, Mr. President, to what extent are Americans financial situations motivating you to make a deal?" He said, "Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about Americans financial situation. I don't think about anybody.
This is perhaps the most truthful thing Trump has ever said in public and there's a whole lot to dive into. Let's be clear on something. Iran was not actively seeking a nuke. US intelligence assessments and the International Atomic Energy Agency both said Iran did not have an active nuclear weapons program despite having all that uranium. The US intelligence consensus is that Iran hasn't had an active nuclear weapons program in more than 20 years. Trump's claims about Iran's nuclear weapons program are the same as Bush's claims about Iraq's WMDs.
Beyond that, despite all of the bombing and all of the money Trump and Hegseth basically lit on fire during Operation Epic Failure, the timeline for Iran to achieve a nuke if they started an active program is unchanged. So, he's solely focused on one thing and has failed to accomplish that because they've waged a war around sound bites rather than objectives.
Take out the stuff about why he doesn't care. And he says, "Not even a little bit. I don't think about Americans financial situation. I don't think about anybody." No lies detected, Mr. President.
He told you the one Big Beautiful Bill was going to make your life better. Has it? He told you that manufacturing was coming back. He told you the US was entering a Golden Age.
When they passed the one big beautiful for billionaires package, it was about tax cuts for the rich. Do I believe they considered Americans financial situations during that? Not even a little bit. I don't think they thought about Americans financial situation. I don't think they thought about anybody except themselves.
If you take Trump's quote and apply it to his entire administration and every action, if you assume the only thing that matters are the things that benefit him and his wealthy friends, every single action he's taken makes complete sense.
Many Republicans will blow this off, but those who aren't in an echo chamber singing Trump's praises won't. If the Democratic party doesn't use this soundbite every day between now and the election every single campaign adviser needs to think about a different line of work. Candidate sings the praises of Trump or says they support his policies--play the clip. Then play, I don't think about Americans financial situations.
Trump's unnecessary elective war has put a lot of very sharp pebbles in a lot of shoes. People need to understand he doesn't care. Not even a little bit.
Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
May 13, 2026
Today, there is dangerous news from Belarus.
Here, Belarus is pushing its luck again and staging repeated aerial provocations and incursions along the Ukrainian border. Now, they are copying the Russian playbook and even trying to provoke Ukraine into a major escalation.
Recently, Ukrainian forces had observed unusual activity on the Belarusian side of the Ukraine-Belarus border. Ukrainian radar and monitoring systems also began detecting increased aerial activity near the border. In response, Zelensky warned that Ukraine is fully prepared to defend its people and sovereignty, adding that anyone considering involvement in aggression against Ukraine should understand the consequences.
Shortly afterward, helicopters were detected approaching the border near the Chornobyl area. Two Belarusian helicopters were operating within Belarusian territory just a few kilometers from Ukraines Chernihiv and Kyiv regions. One of the helicopters flew only meters from the border and appeared to be preparing to enter the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone. In response, Ukrainian air defense units were placed on high alert and prepared to intercept them. The incident is significant because, during the start of Russias full-scale invasion, Russian airborne forces used helicopters to rapidly advance toward Kyiv and seize strategic locations around the capital.
This latest provocation comes amid growing preparations in Belarus that could enable Russian forces or Belarusian troops themselves to launch a renewed attack on Ukraine from the north. Ukraine says it has observed the development of logistics routes, training grounds, and military facilities in Belarus that are already planned to be used jointly with Russian forces. At the same time, while there is no massive concentration of Russian troops inside Belarus, the several thousand strong contingent works closely together with the Belarusian army, in addition to the almost three-hundred-thousand reservists that could be mobilized in case of a triggering event. Therefore, Ukraine continues preparing for possible provocations and attempts to destabilize the northern border region, building defensive lines and fortifications. Belarusian helicopters approaching the border could land special forces and provide fire support to break through the defenses and allow a larger force to roll in.
This time, fortunately, the helicopters turned away at the last moment, although another object did cross into Ukraine from the north shortly afterward. After entering Ukrainian airspace, the object was identified as a balloon flying at an altitude of approximately six thousand five hundred meters. The balloon was equipped with a signal repeater designed to amplify communications, strengthen and extend the control signal for Russian drones and other weapons used in attacks against Ukraine. These are one of the tools Russia uses to strike Ukraine more effectively, but if they cross the border, these can be shot down without risking a bigger escalation that a direct strike into Belarusian airspace would cause.
However, Belarus is raising the stakes even further, outside of simply allowing Russian drones to use Belarusian territory to increase signal strength. Notably, some of the Russian drones used in attacks on Kyiv do not have the operational range to be launched directly from Russian territory, meaning they need to have been launched from Belarus instead. Specifically, Russia used a new AI-guided Lancet drone in a strike on Kyiv, with the drone crashing near the Independence Monument. The drones estimated extended range is up to 100 kilometers, while the nearest Russian border is roughly two hundred kilometers away. Lancet drones are also more difficult to intercept than Shaheds because of their smaller size and different flight characteristics, requiring additional air defense resources to counter effectively. The incident suggests that Russia is now using Belarusian territory not only to support strikes logistically but also as a launch platform for attacks against Ukraine. This creates a difficult strategic dilemma for Kyiv, as Ukrainian forces have avoided striking targets inside Belarus to prevent further escalation and avoid drawing Belarus more directly into the war. However, this is precisely Russias objective to pressure Ukraine into opening and defending another major front along the roughly one-thousand-kilometer border with Belarus. Such an escalation would finally allow Lukashenko to announce the mobilization of his reservists with less societal backlash, forcing Belarus into the conflict and thereby stretching Ukrainian manpower, equipment, and air defense resources even further.
Helicopters on the border! Lukashenko is pushing his luck! - RFU News
Today, there is dangerous news from Belarus.
Here, Belarus is pushing its luck again and staging repeated aerial provocations and incursions along the Ukrainian border. Now, they are copying the Russian playbook and even trying to provoke Ukraine into a major escalation.
Recently, Ukrainian forces had observed unusual activity on the Belarusian side of the Ukraine-Belarus border. Ukrainian radar and monitoring systems also began detecting increased aerial activity near the border. In response, Zelensky warned that Ukraine is fully prepared to defend its people and sovereignty, adding that anyone considering involvement in aggression against Ukraine should understand the consequences.
Shortly afterward, helicopters were detected approaching the border near the Chornobyl area. Two Belarusian helicopters were operating within Belarusian territory just a few kilometers from Ukraines Chernihiv and Kyiv regions. One of the helicopters flew only meters from the border and appeared to be preparing to enter the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone. In response, Ukrainian air defense units were placed on high alert and prepared to intercept them. The incident is significant because, during the start of Russias full-scale invasion, Russian airborne forces used helicopters to rapidly advance toward Kyiv and seize strategic locations around the capital.
This latest provocation comes amid growing preparations in Belarus that could enable Russian forces or Belarusian troops themselves to launch a renewed attack on Ukraine from the north. Ukraine says it has observed the development of logistics routes, training grounds, and military facilities in Belarus that are already planned to be used jointly with Russian forces. At the same time, while there is no massive concentration of Russian troops inside Belarus, the several thousand strong contingent works closely together with the Belarusian army, in addition to the almost three-hundred-thousand reservists that could be mobilized in case of a triggering event. Therefore, Ukraine continues preparing for possible provocations and attempts to destabilize the northern border region, building defensive lines and fortifications. Belarusian helicopters approaching the border could land special forces and provide fire support to break through the defenses and allow a larger force to roll in.
This time, fortunately, the helicopters turned away at the last moment, although another object did cross into Ukraine from the north shortly afterward. After entering Ukrainian airspace, the object was identified as a balloon flying at an altitude of approximately six thousand five hundred meters. The balloon was equipped with a signal repeater designed to amplify communications, strengthen and extend the control signal for Russian drones and other weapons used in attacks against Ukraine. These are one of the tools Russia uses to strike Ukraine more effectively, but if they cross the border, these can be shot down without risking a bigger escalation that a direct strike into Belarusian airspace would cause.
However, Belarus is raising the stakes even further, outside of simply allowing Russian drones to use Belarusian territory to increase signal strength. Notably, some of the Russian drones used in attacks on Kyiv do not have the operational range to be launched directly from Russian territory, meaning they need to have been launched from Belarus instead. Specifically, Russia used a new AI-guided Lancet drone in a strike on Kyiv, with the drone crashing near the Independence Monument. The drones estimated extended range is up to 100 kilometers, while the nearest Russian border is roughly two hundred kilometers away. Lancet drones are also more difficult to intercept than Shaheds because of their smaller size and different flight characteristics, requiring additional air defense resources to counter effectively. The incident suggests that Russia is now using Belarusian territory not only to support strikes logistically but also as a launch platform for attacks against Ukraine. This creates a difficult strategic dilemma for Kyiv, as Ukrainian forces have avoided striking targets inside Belarus to prevent further escalation and avoid drawing Belarus more directly into the war. However, this is precisely Russias objective to pressure Ukraine into opening and defending another major front along the roughly one-thousand-kilometer border with Belarus. Such an escalation would finally allow Lukashenko to announce the mobilization of his reservists with less societal backlash, forcing Belarus into the conflict and thereby stretching Ukrainian manpower, equipment, and air defense resources even further.
May 13, 2026
Moscow built its Black Sea fleet to intimidate Europe, yet Ukraine has forced Putins navy into visible retreat around Crimea and the Kerch Bridge. Ukrainian drones, missiles, and sea strikes now reach assets Moscow once treated as protected, leaving ships covered with cages instead of projecting power. Warships that once threatened the region are being turned into floating proof that Russias naval advantage is narrowing fast.
Drones have pushed the kill zone roughly 20 km (12 mi) behind the front, making Russian movement dangerous before assaults begin. Russian trucks, depots, radars, command posts, patrol boats, and drone teams are being hit before they can support attacks. Instead of restoring control, Moscow is losing Starlink access, restricting Telegram, shutting down internet, and exposing fraud inside its own drone industry.
Financial damage is spreading through the same system trying to save the Black Sea fleet. Oil and gas revenue fell more than 38% across four months, while Russia already recorded a deficit of about $79 billion. After paying billions for North Korean weapons and Iranian-designed drones, the Kremlin still lacks a stable path forward. Putin promised expansion, but his regime is now caging ships, hiding losses, and burning future stability to keep fighting.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro: Russia's Naval Fleet Buckles
02:48 - Truth Shield: Dr. Smart's Ukraine Award
03:53 - Caged Navy: Ukraine Drones Paralyze Russian Ships
06:46 - Elite Theft: Putins Corrupt Drone Program Exposed
08:21 - False Allies: Russia Pays North Korea Billions
10:24 - Nuclear Risk: Russias Secret Shipments to North Korea
11:40 - Fiscal Quagmire: Russias Energy Sector Is Imploding
13:51 - Terminal Decay: Putin Leads Russia to Collapse
Russia retreats as Ukraine regains - Jason Jay Smart
Moscow built its Black Sea fleet to intimidate Europe, yet Ukraine has forced Putins navy into visible retreat around Crimea and the Kerch Bridge. Ukrainian drones, missiles, and sea strikes now reach assets Moscow once treated as protected, leaving ships covered with cages instead of projecting power. Warships that once threatened the region are being turned into floating proof that Russias naval advantage is narrowing fast.
Drones have pushed the kill zone roughly 20 km (12 mi) behind the front, making Russian movement dangerous before assaults begin. Russian trucks, depots, radars, command posts, patrol boats, and drone teams are being hit before they can support attacks. Instead of restoring control, Moscow is losing Starlink access, restricting Telegram, shutting down internet, and exposing fraud inside its own drone industry.
Financial damage is spreading through the same system trying to save the Black Sea fleet. Oil and gas revenue fell more than 38% across four months, while Russia already recorded a deficit of about $79 billion. After paying billions for North Korean weapons and Iranian-designed drones, the Kremlin still lacks a stable path forward. Putin promised expansion, but his regime is now caging ships, hiding losses, and burning future stability to keep fighting.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro: Russia's Naval Fleet Buckles
02:48 - Truth Shield: Dr. Smart's Ukraine Award
03:53 - Caged Navy: Ukraine Drones Paralyze Russian Ships
06:46 - Elite Theft: Putins Corrupt Drone Program Exposed
08:21 - False Allies: Russia Pays North Korea Billions
10:24 - Nuclear Risk: Russias Secret Shipments to North Korea
11:40 - Fiscal Quagmire: Russias Energy Sector Is Imploding
13:51 - Terminal Decay: Putin Leads Russia to Collapse
May 13, 2026
The following summary is AI-generated.
The Core Premise
For 70+ years, NATO's strength rested on one assumption: the US shows up with troops, intelligence, and nuclear deterrence. That assumption is now shakier, as Washington increasingly views Asia (and rivalry with China) as its primary strategic focus, making NATO look like an outdated commitment.
What Europe Would Lose
American withdrawal wouldn't dissolve NATO overnight, but it would gut its operational backbone:
- Logistics The US operates about 270 heavy airlift aircraft; Europe collectively has just over a dozen in the same class
- Intelligence US satellites and surveillance systems provide real-time battlefield awareness that Europe cannot yet replicate at scale
- Missile defense & long-range strike Systems like Aegis and the B-2 shape battlefields before fighting begins; Europe has no equivalent
- Command integration NATO's entire structure is built around US leadership, planning, and standardized platforms like the F-35
The Price Tag
A study by the IISS estimates Europe would need to spend roughly $1 trillion over 25 years just to replace US conventional capabilities including 400 fighter jets, 600 tanks, 20 destroyers, and 10 nuclear-powered submarines. Europe has the economic capacity, but not the time leaving it vulnerable for decades during the transition.
What America Would Lose
The US also has skin in the game:
- 40+ military bases in Europe used for operations across the Middle East, Africa, and the Arctic
- Political legitimacy NATO gives US actions an international, multilateral appearance
- A massive defense market roughly a third of US arms exports go to Europe, sustaining companies like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon
Two Possible Futures for Europe
1. Fragmentation NATO splinters into regional pacts, with Western Europe and Eastern Europe (e.g., Poland, the Baltics) diverging on priorities and timelines
2. Unification Europe overcomes divisions, rebuilds its military-industrial base, and emerges over 4050 years as an independent power center no longer beholden to Washington
Bottom Line
Leaving NATO would free up US resources and sharpen its Asia focus in the short term, but long-term it would cost America its forward bases, political cover, and biggest weapons market while potentially birthing a rival power center in Europe.
What would happen if the US left NATO? - CaspianReport
The following summary is AI-generated.
The Core Premise
For 70+ years, NATO's strength rested on one assumption: the US shows up with troops, intelligence, and nuclear deterrence. That assumption is now shakier, as Washington increasingly views Asia (and rivalry with China) as its primary strategic focus, making NATO look like an outdated commitment.
What Europe Would Lose
American withdrawal wouldn't dissolve NATO overnight, but it would gut its operational backbone:
- Logistics The US operates about 270 heavy airlift aircraft; Europe collectively has just over a dozen in the same class
- Intelligence US satellites and surveillance systems provide real-time battlefield awareness that Europe cannot yet replicate at scale
- Missile defense & long-range strike Systems like Aegis and the B-2 shape battlefields before fighting begins; Europe has no equivalent
- Command integration NATO's entire structure is built around US leadership, planning, and standardized platforms like the F-35
The Price Tag
A study by the IISS estimates Europe would need to spend roughly $1 trillion over 25 years just to replace US conventional capabilities including 400 fighter jets, 600 tanks, 20 destroyers, and 10 nuclear-powered submarines. Europe has the economic capacity, but not the time leaving it vulnerable for decades during the transition.
What America Would Lose
The US also has skin in the game:
- 40+ military bases in Europe used for operations across the Middle East, Africa, and the Arctic
- Political legitimacy NATO gives US actions an international, multilateral appearance
- A massive defense market roughly a third of US arms exports go to Europe, sustaining companies like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon
Two Possible Futures for Europe
1. Fragmentation NATO splinters into regional pacts, with Western Europe and Eastern Europe (e.g., Poland, the Baltics) diverging on priorities and timelines
2. Unification Europe overcomes divisions, rebuilds its military-industrial base, and emerges over 4050 years as an independent power center no longer beholden to Washington
Bottom Line
Leaving NATO would free up US resources and sharpen its Asia focus in the short term, but long-term it would cost America its forward bases, political cover, and biggest weapons market while potentially birthing a rival power center in Europe.
May 13, 2026
Oversight Democrats say they are in a "new phase" of the Epstein probe after holding a shadow field hearing in Florida yesterday with survivors. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA), Ranking Member of the House Oversight Committee, joins Erielle Reshef to discuss the new information they've learned.
B.S.': Top Oversight Dem says there's 'more info' on Epstein despite Blanche saying to move on - MS NOW
Oversight Democrats say they are in a "new phase" of the Epstein probe after holding a shadow field hearing in Florida yesterday with survivors. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA), Ranking Member of the House Oversight Committee, joins Erielle Reshef to discuss the new information they've learned.
May 13, 2026
Can a wearable AI "friend" solve the male loneliness epidemic? Ronny Chieng sits down with the founders of two competing AI necklace companies to find out how their products work, what the public thinks about the technology, and whether the bad blood between the two men can be resolved before it boils over.
Are These Dueling AI Necklaces the Solution to Male Loneliness? Ronny Investigates - The Daily Show
Can a wearable AI "friend" solve the male loneliness epidemic? Ronny Chieng sits down with the founders of two competing AI necklace companies to find out how their products work, what the public thinks about the technology, and whether the bad blood between the two men can be resolved before it boils over.
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: South Texas. most of my life I lived in Austin and Dallas
Home country: United States
Current location: Bryan, Texas
Member since: Sun Aug 14, 2011, 03:57 AM
Number of posts: 128,150